NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	6.4 [498]		MVP	Eddie Jones (LAL): +8.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	94		Comeback	1.5 [806]		LVP	Sasha Danilovic (MIA): -18.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Martin Muursepp	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	12	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.06
John Crotty	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	24	53%	0.03	6	-0.11	11	64%	-0.01
Ike Austin	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	7	39%	-0.08	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05
Tim Hardaway	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.13,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	18	35%	-0.11	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Sasha Danilovic	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.04	-0.01	12	30%	-0.13	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	0.00	15	62%	0.15	3	-0.07	10	90%	0.06
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.02	-0.06	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	6	17%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.06,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.05	-0.06	26	54%	0.13	5	-0.10	11	36%	-0.07
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Sean Rooks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Byron Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	27%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	9	22%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	16	26%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	28.8	14.8	26.3	2.7	34.4	135.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +19.2%

LAL +21.5%

LAL +11.4%

MIA -1.8%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	14.3	15.2	15.6	87.6	95.9	104.4
season	15.8	15.3		103.1	105.8
opponent	15.7	16.3		101.5	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	10.6	16.7	14.1	16.8	14.3
LAL	15.1	14.0	15.9	15.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Martin Muursepp	2	2	-0.00	-0.51	0.51	-0.06	2	-11	13	6.0	14.5	-8.48	6.0	15.4	-9.42
John Crotty	7	7	-0.14	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-4	-1	18.1	14.0	4.13	8.9	15.7	-6.86
Sasha Danilovic	93	94	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	-6	3	13.9	23.7	-9.85	15.2	16.0	-0.81
Ike Austin	49	48	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-5	1	15.5	13.1	2.43	14.7	15.7	-0.93
Voshon Lenard	41	40	-0.37	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-2	-5	15.7	13.3	2.46	14.5	15.7	-1.18
Tim Hardaway	90	91	-0.37	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-5	1	14.0	18.1	-4.13	15.7	8.9	6.86
P.J. Brown	79	82	-0.37	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-4	-1	14.4	13.7	0.72	15.5	13.7	1.84
Keith Askins	40	42	-0.37	-0.14	-0.23	-0.08	-10	1	-11	13.4	14.9	-1.50	15.7	14.9	0.82
Alonzo Mourning	84	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	0	-9	13.9	17.2	-3.37	15.6	13.2	2.35

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	76	77	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.17	12	-3	15	15.1	15.7	-0.65	15.6	9.4	6.12
Travis Knight	45	44	0.43	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	-1	11	15.1	15.3	-0.25	14.9	13.8	1.10
Shaquille O'Neal	84	82	0.38	0.13	0.25	0.08	10	-1	11	15.4	14.4	1.01	14.0	15.9	-1.92
Byron Scott	59	58	0.35	0.16	0.19	0.17	6	3	3	15.3	15.1	0.25	13.4	15.7	-2.27
Nick Van Exel	80	78	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.11	5	4	1	15.4	14.4	0.96	13.8	16.2	-2.36
Elden Campbell	52	53	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.16	3	6	-3	14.6	16.0	-1.42	15.3	13.1	2.23
Derek Fisher	18	19	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	5	-1	14.4	15.4	-0.96	16.2	13.8	2.36
Jerome Kersey	47	46	0.15	0.36	-0.21	0.15	0	9	-9	14.6	15.8	-1.13	14.1	14.5	-0.46
Kobe Bryant	17	16	-0.00	0.51	-0.51	0.06	-2	11	-13	16.7	14.9	1.79	10.9	15.0	-4.04
Sean Rooks	12	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	12	-15	18.2	14.8	3.45	11.4	14.7	-3.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 95, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%
POR 95, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.88,0.92,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
SAS 90, NOP 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.76,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1	94.2%