NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	109		Excitement	3.1 [1126]		MVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): +11.5%
Sacramento Kings	96		Comeback	1.2 [556]		LVP	Olden Polynice (SAC): -11.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.22	0.01	0.11	21	75%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.13	0.01	0.07	12	88%	0.11	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.00	0.06	12	81%	0.09	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brooks Thompson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.10	0.01	-0.13	9	25%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.00
Elmer Bennett	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.00
LaSalle Thompson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	6	36%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	9	33%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	16	49%	0.03	2	-0.03	7	57%	-0.01
Billy Owens	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Salvadori	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	3	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	13	58%	-0.00	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.01
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.00	0.07	5	83%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	14	47%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	11	27%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.00	-0.03	6	14%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.15	-0.01	-0.05	12	27%	-0.07	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	1.8	27.3	15.4	20.6	2.5	28.5	116.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +59.5%

SAC -0.6%

SAC -8.7%

DEN +1.4%

SAC -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	15.7	15.0	15.6	116.0	102.1	104.4
season	15.2	15.4		102.3	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		106.0	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	14.5	16.6	17.4	15.7
SAC	15.1	16.8	14.7	13.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	79	77	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.27	26	-13	39	15.1	18.7	-3.63	15.3	13.5	1.82
Ervin Johnson	80	80	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.19	21	-8	29	15.6	16.0	-0.37	15.5	11.9	3.64
Brooks Thompson	43	44	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	3	7	16.1	15.3	0.85	14.7	15.1	-0.39
LaPhonso Ellis	63	62	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.18	18	-5	23	15.1	16.9	-1.78	15.0	15.0	-0.02
Darvin Ham	30	31	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	7	-1	15.5	15.8	-0.27	14.5	15.2	-0.75
Dale Ellis	63	61	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	4	5	15.8	15.4	0.44	15.3	14.3	0.96
Tom Hammonds	32	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.01	6	7	-1	15.0	16.0	-1.03	16.3	14.2	2.03
Ricky Pierce	52	52	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.41	-8	21	-29	15.7	15.6	0.15	14.3	15.8	-1.54
Elmer Bennett	22	24	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.36	-12	25	-37	17.8	15.0	2.73	13.5	15.5	-2.01
LaSalle Thompson	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	24	-35	21.7	15.3	6.39	9.0	15.4	-6.36

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Causwell	34	32	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.46	17	-30	47	14.5	15.2	-0.76	17.3	14.9	2.43
Kevin Salvadori	10	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.38	13	-26	39	11.7	15.3	-3.65	20.2	15.2	5.02
Bobby Hurley	10	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.38	13	-26	39	11.7	15.3	-3.65	20.2	15.2	5.02
Michael Smith	28	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.13	-6	-7	1	14.7	15.1	-0.40	16.0	15.5	0.51
Billy Owens	34	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-10	7	15.3	14.7	0.57	14.8	16.2	-1.40
Tyus Edney	49	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.13	-12	-1	-11	14.5	15.4	-0.89	14.7	16.7	-2.07
Kevin Gamble	57	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-11	9	14.9	15.0	-0.03	16.4	14.6	1.82
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	52	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.19	-18	5	-23	15.1	14.8	0.35	15.8	15.5	0.28
Corliss Williamson	57	57	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	-4	-5	15.2	14.5	0.69	15.4	16.1	-0.75
Mitch Richmond	77	79	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.21	-24	11	-35	15.6	12.1	3.47	15.2	18.5	-3.31
Olden Polynice	62	65	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.46	-34	21	-55	15.4	14.1	1.26	14.9	17.5	-2.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 103, NYK 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
LAL 107, DEN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
MIA 118, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%