NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	9.5 [90]		MVP	Vernon Maxwell (SAS): +36.3%
Denver Nuggets	91		Comeback	5.3 [157]		LVP	Monty Williams (SAS): -23.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vernon Maxwell	0.36	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.44,0.36	0.07	0.28	-0.01	20	55%	0.36	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Carl Herrera	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.21	-0.04	0.26	0.01	14	36%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	69%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Greg Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Gaylon Nickerson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	9	44%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	10	55%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.32,-0.43,-0.24	-0.15	-0.09	-0.00	19	32%	-0.17	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,0	-0.00	-0.12	0.10	-0.02	14	31%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.13
Mark Jackson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.06	-0.00	15	61%	0.06	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.17,0.12,-0.01,-0.14	-0.14	0.07	-0.23	-0.03	22	60%	0.00	2	-0.14	6	50%	-0.33

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	23.4	15.4	23.9	1.5	35.9	125.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +4.4%

SAS +18.1%

SAS +4.6%

SAS +23.0%

DEN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	17.1	15.4	15.6	105.7	102.2	104.4
season	16.8	15.2		100.8	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.8	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	16.2	18.3	19.1	17.1
DEN	12.7	15.1	16.0	18.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Herrera	49	52	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.42	9	-7	16	17.7	16.5	1.21	16.4	14.1	2.33
Vernon Maxwell	75	75	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.50	5	-3	8	17.2	16.9	0.25	15.2	16.6	-1.46
Monty Williams	63	63	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.46	4	-2	6	16.7	18.2	-1.54	15.3	15.8	-0.55
Avery Johnson	70	72	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.52	0	2	-2	17.0	17.6	-0.60	15.1	16.9	-1.81
Will Perdue	64	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.52	-1	3	-4	17.3	16.6	0.70	15.4	15.5	-0.06
Greg Anderson	25	24	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.07	3	-1	4	16.0	17.6	-1.64	15.5	15.4	0.06
Gaylon Nickerson	19	20	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	1	0	18.3	16.8	1.50	18.1	14.6	3.53
Sean Elliott	12	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	3	-4	15.1	17.5	-2.38	13.3	15.8	-2.47
Stephen Howard	39	37	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.02	-7	9	-16	16.5	17.7	-1.21	14.1	16.4	-2.33
Cory Alexander	24	24	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.11	-3	5	-8	19.3	16.3	3.02	16.5	15.0	1.43

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Pierce	47	46	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-6	10	14.4	16.5	-2.05	17.1	17.2	-0.10
Antonio McDyess	21	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	1	-4	15.0	15.5	-0.54	17.7	17.0	0.76
LaPhonso Ellis	65	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.40	7	-9	16	14.2	18.7	-4.57	16.8	18.0	-1.24
Mark Jackson	83	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.42	2	-4	6	15.3	17.5	-2.23	17.2	16.9	0.29
Tom Hammonds	29	29	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	8	-18	16.1	15.1	0.97	15.5	17.9	-2.41
Ervin Johnson	88	88	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	0	-2	15.4	15.0	0.42	17.1	0.0	17.14
Dale Ellis	72	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	0	-2	15.8	13.9	1.90	17.1	17.4	-0.34
Brooks Thompson	40	41	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.39	-6	4	-10	17.9	13.3	4.60	18.6	15.8	2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.47,0.31,0.45,0.68,0.29,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 88, MIA 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.27,0	90.9%
POR 103, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.93,0.73,0.59,0.66,0.47,0.32,0.64,0.67,0.58,0	90.4%
CHA 90, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.59,0.6,0.39,0.38,0.46,0.68,0.74,0	90.0%