NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	85		Excitement	4.0 [983]		MVP	Terry Mills (DET): +10.1%
Detroit Pistons	97		Comeback	1.1 [910]		LVP	Brian Shaw (ORL): -12.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dennis Scott	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.16	-0.01	0.12	13	77%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Dan Schayes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	9	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	12	54%	-0.00	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Derek Strong	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	14	37%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Brian Shaw	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	12	33%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.01	-0.04	11	55%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.14	-0.02	0.06	13	79%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	69%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	17	57%	0.09	3	-0.08	10	70%	-0.00
Don Reid	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	10	46%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Mahorn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Litterial Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	2	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	8	28%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.4	22.6	15.6	28.0	2.7	30.6	125.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +31.1%

DET +6.9%

DET +13.2%

ORL -1.0%

ORL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	15.8	17.1	15.6	97.7	110.2	104.4
season	16.4	17.1		102.9	107.6
opponent	16.2	15.5		102.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.0	15.5	16.2	15.7	15.8
DET	17.6	15.1	18.9	17.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	29	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-14	16	13.6	16.9	-3.31	15.5	17.9	-2.40
Kenny Smith	11	11	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-8	4	20.7	15.1	5.61	18.5	16.9	1.57
Dan Schayes	22	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	-7	2	18.2	15.0	3.15	17.2	17.0	0.13
Derek Strong	24	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-7	2	16.8	15.4	1.39	15.6	17.7	-2.07
Rony Seikaly	58	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-7	2	15.1	17.2	-2.12	18.0	15.4	2.56
Dennis Scott	71	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	-3	-6	15.2	18.4	-3.20	16.9	17.7	-0.79
Brian Shaw	79	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-8	4	15.6	18.1	-2.53	17.7	12.5	5.17
Horace Grant	72	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	-3	-6	15.5	17.5	-2.06	16.7	18.9	-2.23
Gerald Wilkins	69	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.09	-21	9	-30	16.7	12.4	4.27	17.2	16.7	0.52

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	71	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	1	10	17.3	16.3	0.97	16.1	14.7	1.39
Lindsey Hunter	64	64	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.07	12	0	12	17.5	16.0	1.43	15.7	16.2	-0.53
Joe Dumars	56	56	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.04	12	0	12	18.0	15.4	2.58	16.2	15.2	0.99
Otis Thorpe	45	48	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.13	18	-6	24	17.7	16.5	1.20	17.1	14.3	2.80
Terry Mills	40	40	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	3	6	17.0	17.2	-0.19	17.5	14.4	3.14
Theo Ratliff	41	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.28	-3	15	-18	17.8	16.4	1.40	14.8	16.6	-1.72
Michael Curry	44	43	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	9	-6	16.6	17.5	-0.93	15.8	15.9	-0.07
Rick Mahorn	23	24	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	8	-4	19.1	16.4	2.78	14.6	16.3	-1.66
Grant Long	23	21	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	12	-12	14.6	18.0	-3.40	12.9	16.8	-3.85
Litterial Green	23	23	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.16	-5	17	-22	14.9	17.8	-2.93	14.9	16.2	-1.24
Don Reid	10	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	13	-14	10.8	17.9	-7.08	14.9	15.9	-1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.75,0.82,0.89,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 85, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
IND 96, OKC 114	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.87,0.94,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.8%
SAS 72, DEN 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.99,1,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1	95.8%