NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	5.6 [669]		MVP	Joe Dumars (DET): +20.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	85		Comeback	2.3 [349]		LVP	Johnny Newman (MIL): -13.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.09	0.04	16	74%	0.24	1	-0.03	7	71%	0.02
Michael Curry	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	3	90%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Terry Mills	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	0.00	0.01	25	47%	0.05	4	-0.14	5	80%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.07	-0.02	10	68%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
David Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Respert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	53%	-0.00	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.05	0.03	11	67%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.08	-0.01	20	57%	0.03	3	-0.10	9	67%	-0.03
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	7	55%	0.01	4	-0.14	8	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.4	24.4	15.4	26.5	1.7	31.2	124.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +18.9%

DET +9.4%

MIL -2.4%

DET +23.2%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	18.9	17.5	15.6	117.7	107.6	104.4
season	17.1	16.0		107.6	103.9
opponent	15.5	16.2		106.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.7	18.1	20.2	17.6	18.9
MIL	15.5	19.8	16.6	18.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	44	46	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.31	10	-2	12	17.7	20.5	-2.83	18.1	16.7	1.40
Grant Hill	69	69	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-2	12	18.7	20.5	-1.82	17.3	19.3	-2.01
Terry Mills	51	51	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.26	9	-1	10	18.0	20.6	-2.63	18.8	15.2	3.55
Joe Dumars	64	63	0.41	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	2	4	19.7	15.5	4.17	17.5	17.6	-0.02
Don Reid	13	15	0.39	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	2	4	16.3	19.4	-3.12	21.7	16.6	5.09
Theo Ratliff	7	5	0.15	0.36	-0.21	-0.03	6	2	4	15.9	19.2	-3.35	22.0	17.2	4.76
Grant Long	31	32	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	7	-6	20.6	17.8	2.80	15.6	18.9	-3.23
Otis Thorpe	56	54	-0.06	0.57	-0.63	0.12	-6	14	-20	19.8	16.7	3.06	16.3	20.3	-4.06
Lindsey Hunter	53	52	-0.15	0.66	-0.81	-0.00	-5	13	-18	19.9	16.8	3.14	17.2	18.3	-1.14

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Lang	49	52	0.05	-0.56	0.61	-0.12	6	-14	20	15.7	20.6	-4.98	20.4	16.1	4.31
Shawn Respert	10	8	-0.07	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-4	0	15.0	17.9	-2.91	19.5	18.8	0.65
Elliot Perry	6	7	-0.11	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-4	0	22.3	17.2	5.18	16.7	19.1	-2.41
David Wood	13	14	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-4	0	18.7	17.3	1.37	18.1	19.1	-1.02
Ray Allen	57	57	-0.22	-0.29	0.07	-0.22	0	-8	8	17.4	17.9	-0.44	19.0	18.6	0.44
Sherman Douglas	73	72	-0.40	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-4	0	17.2	22.3	-5.18	19.1	16.7	2.41
Vin Baker	79	79	-0.51	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	0	-8	17.5	0.0	17.54	18.9	0.0	18.91
Johnny Newman	79	79	-0.51	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	0	-8	17.5	0.0	17.54	18.9	0.0	18.91
Armen Gilliam	29	27	-0.58	0.07	-0.64	-0.16	-14	6	-20	21.3	15.3	6.00	16.1	20.4	-4.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.04,0.09,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 114, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.4%
TOR 116, DEN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.31,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0	93.3%
ORL 93, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.73,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.21,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.07,0.06,0.05,0	93.3%