NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	107		Excitement	6.4 [508]		MVP	Jason Caffey (CHI): +16.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	2.4 [332]		LVP	Vin Baker (MIL): -23.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Caffey	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.10	-0.00	6	92%	0.22	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Bill Wennington	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	9	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.02	5	82%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ron Harper	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.04	0.01	11	54%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Jordan	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	27	56%	0.09	3	-0.08	17	82%	0.04
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dennis Rodman	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.17	-0.03	-0.04	14	37%	-0.02	5	-0.14	4	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.02	12	65%	0.11	1	-0.04	7	86%	-0.01
David Wood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.01	2	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrin Hancock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.04	0.01	10	68%	0.06	3	-0.10	8	100%	0.03
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.09	0.02	16	55%	-0.00	4	-0.14	6	83%	-0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.24,-0.23	-0.23	-0.15	-0.04	0.04	11	59%	-0.03	8	-0.20	12	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	33.4	15.4	25.5	2.4	32.5	136.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +29.5%

CHI +5.2%

MIL -3.6%

CHI +24.9%

MIL -5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	14.4	16.2	15.6	115.1	109.5	104.4
season	15.5	16.0		110.5	103.9
opponent	15.5	16.1		106.0	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.4	12.9	15.3	15.1	14.4
MIL	20.5	15.3	14.1	15.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Rodman	67	70	0.60	-0.09	0.69	0.36	8	-5	13	14.7	13.7	1.09	16.8	14.4	2.47
Jason Caffey	27	28	0.57	-0.06	0.63	0.22	12	-9	21	14.4	14.4	0.01	18.0	15.4	2.53
Toni Kukoc	54	55	0.51	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	-2	7	14.4	14.6	-0.21	15.1	17.7	-2.58
Steve Kerr	50	50	0.41	0.10	0.31	0.35	2	1	1	14.8	14.0	0.73	15.3	17.1	-1.77
Scottie Pippen	86	88	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	5	-7	14.7	11.9	2.79	16.3	14.9	1.43
Ron Harper	31	33	0.05	0.46	-0.41	0.08	-1	4	-5	14.7	14.3	0.35	19.3	14.5	4.74
Randy Brown	12	12	0.05	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	1	1	12.4	14.7	-2.32	11.2	16.9	-5.74
Michael Jordan	81	83	0.04	0.47	-0.43	0.30	-9	12	-21	14.1	16.5	-2.36	15.5	20.9	-5.42
Bill Wennington	44	43	-0.04	0.55	-0.59	0.02	-2	5	-7	14.9	14.0	0.89	17.5	15.1	2.43

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	56	54	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.25	13	-16	29	16.2	16.2	-0.04	14.8	13.9	0.94
David Wood	7	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-1	-1	11.3	16.6	-5.28	9.0	15.0	-5.95
Darrin Hancock	7	7	-0.23	-0.28	0.06	-0.11	-4	1	-5	12.4	16.5	-4.05	9.7	14.8	-5.11
Elliot Perry	31	30	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.11	-5	2	-7	16.6	16.0	0.64	13.7	14.8	-1.14
Sherman Douglas	64	63	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.31	2	-5	7	16.0	16.6	-0.64	14.8	13.7	1.14
Vin Baker	92	90	-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-1	-1	16.5	7.0	9.48	14.9	0.7	14.23
Glenn Robinson	69	66	-0.44	-0.07	-0.37	-0.44	0	-3	3	16.6	15.1	1.46	15.0	13.1	1.87
Johnny Newman	67	67	-0.44	-0.07	-0.37	-0.35	-3	0	-3	15.5	17.9	-2.38	14.2	15.0	-0.78
Armen Gilliam	36	35	-0.47	-0.04	-0.43	-0.12	-12	9	-21	15.7	16.5	-0.78	13.5	15.0	-1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.33,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.68,0.5,0.42,0.34,0.24,0.15,0.11,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 108, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.2,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%
BOS 100, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.07,0,0.01,0,0	92.8%
POR 116, SEA 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.11,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0	92.7%