NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	108		Excitement	5.9 [647]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +32.7%
Boston Celtics	91		Comeback	1.5 [491]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (BOS): -12.9%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.23	0.11	0.02	22	73%	0.40	3	-0.07	8	62%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donell Taylor	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	50%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Etan Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Caron Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.01	0.05	19	65%	0.13	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Andray Blatche	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Billy Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	15	41%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	-0.01	17	74%	0.28	6	-0.11	5	80%	-0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	9	67%	0.08	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Delonte West	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	12	62%	0.11	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	8	12%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.8	25.2	16.6	28.2	2.0	27.3	124.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +15.7%

WAS +10.0%

BOS -0.9%

WAS +20.4%

WAS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	BOS	NBA	WAS	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	15.6	114.9	96.8	104.4
season	15.1	14.8		107.4	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.6		104.8	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.3	16.4	15.9	17.5	15.6
BOS	13.9	17.9	13.6	15.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Jeffries	72	72	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.03	21	-4	25	15.1	17.1	-2.00	14.8	15.9	-1.09
Gilbert Arenas	86	85	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.03	16	1	15	15.0	21.7	-6.72	15.1	14.4	0.65
Antonio Daniels	51	50	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.03	13	4	9	16.5	14.5	1.97	16.0	13.9	2.07
Caron Butler	81	81	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.02	12	5	7	14.9	20.0	-5.10	14.8	16.2	-1.39
Brendan Haywood	33	33	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	12	-7	16.0	15.4	0.56	14.9	15.1	-0.14
Etan Thomas	36	37	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	12	-7	14.1	16.5	-2.42	14.7	15.2	-0.54
Michael Ruffin	15	15	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	15	-13	18.4	15.1	3.32	16.7	14.7	2.02
Antawn Jamison	75	74	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.18	9	8	1	15.6	15.5	0.10	14.8	15.9	-1.17
Donell Taylor	12	12	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	16	-15	18.4	15.2	3.22	16.2	14.9	1.30
Billy Thomas	8	9	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	16	-15	21.7	15.0	6.72	14.4	15.1	-0.65
Andray Blatche	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	17	-17	25.0	15.5	9.49	5.0	15.2	-10.25

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwayne Jones	2	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-17	17	5.0	15.2	-10.25	25.0	15.5	9.49
Kendrick Perkins	54	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-17	17	14.3	16.0	-1.77	14.5	17.0	-2.51
Tony Allen	43	43	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	-11	5	15.0	15.0	0.03	17.3	14.2	3.17
Gerald Green	24	24	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-9	1	14.2	15.3	-1.11	17.0	15.1	1.82
Orien Greene	21	20	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.15	-2	-15	13	15.3	15.0	0.33	16.3	15.4	0.88
Raef LaFrentz	48	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.21	-1	-16	15	16.0	14.0	2.02	15.9	15.3	0.52
Brian Scalabrine	26	24	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-15	13	17.3	14.2	3.09	15.3	15.7	-0.37
Delonte West	75	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.15	-15	-2	-13	14.7	16.4	-1.68	15.5	15.8	-0.30
Ryan Gomes	40	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.12	-14	-3	-11	15.0	15.0	-0.01	14.5	16.5	-1.98
Paul Pierce	75	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.13	-15	-2	-13	14.8	15.9	-1.08	15.6	15.7	-0.14
Wally Szczerbiak	62	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.16	-22	5	-27	15.2	14.7	0.52	15.2	16.4	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.2,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 107, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.33,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.56,0.68,0.5,0.42,0.34,0.24,0.15,0.11,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0	93.3%
MIL 100, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0	93.3%
BOS 100, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.07,0,0.01,0,0	93.3%