NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	2.4 [1199]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): +6.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	104		Comeback	1.0 [1013]		LVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): -8.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sarunas Marciulionis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaSalle Thompson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	0.00	0.08	8	75%	-0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	5	79%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	12	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.02	25	47%	-0.04	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	0.00	-0.05	7	40%	-0.04	4	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Dale Ellis	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	21	43%	-0.05	4	-0.04	4	100%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.03	13	75%	0.08	3	-0.01	6	100%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	0.00	0.06	8	74%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	15	44%	0.01	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Rumeal Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Byron Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	4	36%	-0.00	1	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	4	0%	-0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.00	-0.03	19	53%	-0.02	7	-0.07	7	57%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	2.4	30.9	16.0	24.0	2.6	36.5	143.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +29.7%

LAL +2.2%

LAL +10.6%

LAL +5.8%

LAL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	12.9	15.5	15.6	95.0	102.0	104.4
season	15.2	15.3		102.3	105.8
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.5	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	13.4	12.6	11.5	12.9
LAL	15.1	16.6	15.1	15.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	1	2	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-10	12	5.0	13.0	-7.98	3.0	15.7	-12.71
Sarunas Marciulionis	32	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.31	6	-14	20	12.4	13.1	-0.77	16.1	15.2	0.95
LaSalle Thompson	15	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.16	-12	4	-16	15.5	12.5	3.01	14.7	15.6	-0.93
Brooks Thompson	39	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-9	10	13.5	12.5	1.00	17.3	14.3	2.91
Tom Hammonds	56	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.24	0	-8	8	11.8	14.2	-2.38	14.7	16.4	-1.75
Antonio McDyess	70	70	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.28	1	-9	10	13.3	12.1	1.16	16.7	12.7	4.00
Bryant Stith	67	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.09	-8	0	-8	12.3	14.1	-1.83	14.1	18.2	-4.07
Ervin Johnson	59	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	13.1	12.7	0.40	15.5	15.4	0.12
Mark Jackson	68	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.03	-11	3	-14	12.9	12.8	0.12	15.2	16.1	-0.92
Dale Ellis	101	102	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	12.9	0.0	12.90	15.5	0.0	15.46

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	82	82	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-3	14	15.5	15.1	0.45	13.6	9.7	3.90
Jerome Kersey	56	56	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	4	0	16.3	14.4	1.95	13.2	12.6	0.62
Eddie Jones	83	81	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.21	4	4	0	14.1	21.2	-7.07	12.3	15.4	-3.12
Elden Campbell	70	69	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	5	-2	14.9	16.6	-1.70	12.1	14.5	-2.39
Nick Van Exel	79	79	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	5	-2	14.8	17.7	-2.83	12.5	14.2	-1.70
Travis Knight	37	36	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	6	-4	18.2	13.9	4.32	13.6	12.5	1.06
Derek Fisher	28	27	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.12	3	5	-2	15.3	15.5	-0.19	12.5	13.0	-0.52
Byron Scott	31	32	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	5	-2	16.5	15.0	1.42	12.7	13.0	-0.31
Rumeal Robinson	31	31	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.13	9	-1	10	15.3	15.5	-0.20	13.8	12.5	1.31
Corie Blount	10	10	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	6	-4	13.7	15.7	-1.95	13.6	12.8	0.78
Kobe Bryant	6	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	12	-16	16.2	15.4	0.75	9.8	13.1	-3.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 77, DAL 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%
WAS 68, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%
MIA 65, WAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%