NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	77		Excitement	7.4 [335]		MVP	Gary Grant (MIA): +11.9%
Miami Heat	78		Comeback	1.4 [811]		LVP	Todd Day (BOS): -22.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Greg Minor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dana Barros	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04	-0.09	0.04	-0.01	8	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	14	43%	-0.00	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	-0.00	13	41%	-0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dino Radja	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.10	0.01	16	39%	-0.18	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.06
Todd Day	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22	-0.06	-0.17	0.00	9	33%	-0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.08	-0.02	6	50%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	11	61%	0.05	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.04	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	19	45%	0.02	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Sasha Danilovic	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.10	0.02	13	53%	-0.04	5	-0.15	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.3	25.2	15.5	21.2	1.8	33.3	123.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +72.1%

MIA +7.0%

BOS -12.7%

BOS -25.9%

MIA +9.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	17.7	15.8	15.6	89.5	90.7	104.4
season	14.8	15.8		101.8	103.1
opponent	16.3	14.7		98.3	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.5	17.0	18.4	19.1	17.7
MIA	15.5	16.5	14.3	16.9	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Minor	42	40	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-5	9	17.1	18.3	-1.20	16.0	15.5	0.50
Eric Williams	54	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	0	-1	18.7	16.1	2.61	16.1	15.3	0.76
Marty Conlon	24	22	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-1	1	18.3	17.5	0.78	17.8	15.1	2.71
Antoine Walker	40	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	4	-9	18.0	17.5	0.45	16.1	15.5	0.60
Dee Brown	51	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.46	7	-8	15	18.0	17.3	0.71	16.4	14.8	1.59
Todd Day	44	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.45	6	-7	13	17.5	18.0	-0.43	16.5	15.0	1.43
Dino Radja	61	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.41	-1	0	-1	17.6	18.2	-0.60	15.1	17.8	-2.71
Dana Barros	46	48	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	2	-5	17.3	18.2	-0.97	14.9	16.9	-2.04
Rick Fox	68	70	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.43	-12	11	-23	17.4	19.1	-1.67	14.9	19.5	-4.60

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	78	78	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.47	4	-3	7	15.8	14.9	0.97	18.0	15.5	2.46
P.J. Brown	53	51	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.31	9	-8	17	14.8	17.2	-2.41	18.2	17.1	1.09
Tim Hardaway	70	68	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.43	2	-1	3	14.8	19.8	-4.98	17.0	20.7	-3.71
Alonzo Mourning	83	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.51	-1	2	-3	15.6	19.3	-3.71	17.6	21.0	-3.39
Sasha Danilovic	70	68	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.41	-1	2	-3	15.1	18.7	-3.68	17.2	19.8	-2.59
Keith Askins	24	27	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	2	-3	17.5	15.1	2.36	18.3	17.5	0.88
Gary Grant	16	18	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	2	-3	19.8	14.8	4.98	20.7	17.0	3.71
Ike Austin	36	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.13	-6	7	-13	17.4	14.6	2.86	17.5	17.9	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.58,0.57,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.79,0.65,0.54,0.69,0.92,0.99,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 72, GSW 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.54,0.75,0.85,0.91,0.92,1	93.2%
HOU 99, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.47,0.75,0.89,0.9,0.96,1	93.1%
MIL 89, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.65,0.66,0.79,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.69,0.84,0.94,0.99,1	93.1%