NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	77		Excitement	7.1 [383]		MVP	Tyrone Corbin (ATL): +24.1%
Atlanta Hawks	85		Comeback	12.5 [138]		LVP	Eldridge Recasner (ATL): -23.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.04	-0.01	19	59%	0.08	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	52%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	7	31%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Gary Grant	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13,-0.12	0.04	-0.15	0.01	12	68%	0.06	3	-0.18	1	0%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	5	50%	-0.04	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Ike Austin	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	9	36%	-0.09	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.23,0.24	0.24	0.07	0.19	0.02	10	73%	0.28	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.02
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	15	51%	0.02	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.03
Ivano Newbill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	8	52%	-0.06	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.05
Willie Burton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	2	60%	-0.05	2	-0.11	6	67%	-0.01
Donnie Boyce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	4	0%	-0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	11	40%	-0.17	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.27,-0.27,-0.23	-0.23	-0.09	-0.13	0.01	8	58%	-0.10	5	-0.13	8	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.4	30.4	16.5	24.4	1.6	41.5	143.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -20.4%

ATL +24.9%

ATL +38.4%

ATL +4.4%

ATL +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	17.2	16.7	15.6	91.7	98.8	104.4
season	15.8	16.4		103.1	105.3
opponent	16.0	16.3		100.3	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	19.6	17.7	15.9	17.2
ATL	17.2	14.0	15.9	20.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	36	36	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-9	10	16.6	17.6	-0.95	16.3	17.0	-0.73
Keith Askins	22	22	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-11	14	16.1	17.5	-1.38	18.8	16.0	2.74
Ike Austin	39	39	0.02	-0.53	0.55	-0.07	3	-11	14	18.5	16.0	2.44	15.6	17.7	-2.09
Voshon Lenard	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.05	-2	-6	4	7.0	17.3	-10.28	0.5	17.1	-16.62
Gary Grant	15	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-7	6	17.5	17.1	0.46	16.9	16.7	0.17
Alonzo Mourning	58	61	-0.25	-0.26	0.01	-0.28	1	-9	10	16.9	17.7	-0.78	16.7	16.8	-0.15
Tim Hardaway	78	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.24	-6	-2	-4	16.8	22.2	-5.40	16.0	23.9	-7.87
Sasha Danilovic	64	67	-0.44	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	-1	-6	18.0	14.3	3.68	16.4	17.8	-1.36
Dan Majerle	73	75	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.27	-13	5	-18	17.0	18.0	-0.97	17.1	14.0	3.13
P.J. Brown	34	34	-0.85	0.34	-1.19	-0.29	-19	11	-30	16.9	17.3	-0.36	19.5	14.9	4.63

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	49	50	0.96	-0.45	1.42	0.23	25	-17	42	18.1	14.9	3.23	17.5	16.6	0.90
Christian Laettner	77	77	0.71	-0.20	0.90	0.21	17	-9	26	17.1	13.6	3.55	17.0	18.6	-1.55
Jon Barry	81	80	0.55	-0.04	0.59	0.29	9	-1	10	16.7	16.8	-0.07	16.9	22.7	-5.87
Tyrone Corbin	74	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.37	6	2	4	16.3	19.4	-3.12	17.3	16.5	0.79
Eldridge Recasner	75	73	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.26	5	3	2	16.8	16.5	0.21	17.1	17.7	-0.66
Donnie Boyce	16	15	0.06	0.45	-0.39	0.00	2	6	-4	16.6	16.8	-0.13	19.1	16.7	2.33
Willie Burton	27	27	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.07	-8	16	-24	15.4	17.4	-1.99	17.8	16.8	0.97
Ivano Newbill	31	28	-0.38	0.89	-1.27	0.09	-16	24	-40	15.8	17.2	-1.40	15.9	17.8	-1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 88, GSW 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.34,0.27,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.45,0.72,1	92.5%
DET 87, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.36,0.28,0.35,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.47,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.92,1	91.8%
BOS 84, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.16,0.25,0.34,0.24,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.85,1	90.9%