NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	106		Excitement	1.8 [514]		MVP	Sandro Mamukelashvili (TOR): +13.0%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	2.7 [266]		LVP	Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): -12.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sandro Mamukelashvili	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.09	-0.00	9	58%	0.16	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Ingram	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	19	65%	0.18	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Gradey Dick	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.00	9	53%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Immanuel Quickley	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	12	60%	0.14	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Ochai Agbaji	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Collin Murray-Boyles	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Shead	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	16	52%	0.11	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.00
Jakob Poeltl	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Ja'Kobe Walter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.01	8	58%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Norman Powell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	-0.00	-0.05	15	50%	0.11	3	-0.06	10	80%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.03	13	59%	0.07	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02
Davion Mitchell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keshad Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	12	42%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	9	56%	0.02	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.6	27.5	0.0	27.8	0.0	32.0	0.0
league avg	26.5	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.9	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +58.4%

MIA -7.6%

TOR +3.9%

MIA -4.7%

TOR +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	14.2	14.2	107.1	95.0	113.4
season	13.9	12.9		113.5	114.9
opponent	14.5	14.8		112.7	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.2	14.9	13.5	15.6	14.6
MIA	13.9	13.9	15.8	13.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Shead	91	92	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.18	17	-7	24	14.4	16.6	-2.25	14.6	10.6	4.00
Sandro Mamukelashvili	76	78	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.07	17	-7	24	13.6	17.7	-4.03	15.0	11.4	3.58
Collin Murray-Boyles	79	81	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.23	9	1	8	14.1	16.4	-2.37	15.2	10.0	5.17
Jakob Poeltl	76	76	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.26	8	2	6	14.9	13.3	1.63	14.3	13.9	0.37
Ja'Kobe Walter	27	26	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.25	8	2	6	14.0	14.8	-0.81	15.6	13.7	1.91
Scottie Barnes	97	99	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.24	7	3	4	14.5	16.5	-1.98	14.3	10.0	4.28
Brandon Ingram	99	100	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.20	8	2	6	14.6	0.0	14.56	14.1	22.0	-7.88
Immanuel Quickley	88	88	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.24	3	7	-4	14.6	14.5	0.01	14.2	14.0	0.23
Ochai Agbaji	84	86	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	11	-12	14.5	14.7	-0.13	14.5	12.5	1.96
Gradey Dick	63	64	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.12	-3	13	-16	13.9	15.7	-1.75	14.7	13.4	1.29

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jovi?	18	17	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.06	6	-16	22	14.7	14.1	0.57	13.7	14.7	-1.03
Keshad Johnson	68	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	-3	-4	15.0	12.5	2.45	13.6	16.4	-2.74
Kel'el Ware	75	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-1	-8	15.2	11.4	3.74	13.9	16.4	-2.53
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	94	91	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	-1	-8	14.6	8.7	5.89	14.3	17.4	-3.07
Norman Powell	101	99	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	14.2	0.0	14.20	14.6	0.0	14.56
Simone Fontecchio	86	85	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.31	-7	-3	-4	14.9	9.9	5.01	14.5	14.8	-0.27
Davion Mitchell	83	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	-2	-6	14.6	12.4	2.13	14.6	14.5	0.10
Bam Adebayo	83	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	-2	-6	14.6	12.4	2.13	14.6	14.5	0.10
Dru Smith	86	83	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.26	-11	1	-12	14.4	13.0	1.41	14.6	14.2	0.36
Andrew Wiggins	89	87	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.33	-10	0	-10	14.3	13.3	0.98	14.4	15.3	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.54,0.4,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.43,0.28,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 100, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.01,0,0	92.8%
LAC 104, DET 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.16,0.09,0,0	92.3%
CHI 117, BOS 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.33,0.15,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	92.0%