NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	100		Excitement	6.8 [352]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +19.7%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	2.5 [107]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -27.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.12	0.00	16	60%	0.25	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.03
Tracy McGrady	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.08	0.04	8	70%	0.16	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.04
Jannero Pargo	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.13	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	9	73%	0.16	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Marvin Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	5	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Teague	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.04	0.02	11	68%	0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.02	0.00	12	35%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	5	8%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.06	0.03	4	100%	0.15	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.01	18	47%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	67%	0.09	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.03	18	62%	0.12	4	-0.13	9	67%	-0.06
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	5	55%	0.04	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.17	-0.13	-0.02	17	30%	-0.16	3	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	27.7	15.6	26.8	1.7	36.5	133.9
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +32.6%

MIA -1.2%

MIA -0.1%

ATL +22.2%

MIA -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	14.5	15.6	108.7	102.2	102.8
season	15.7	15.5		102.5	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.9		98.8	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.6	17.3	16.0	17.7	17.1
MIA	15.8	13.5	13.3	15.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	49	47	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	1	6	16.2	18.2	-1.98	15.2	13.7	1.43
Willie Green	20	19	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.25	6	2	4	17.7	17.0	0.79	15.2	14.3	0.91
Josh Smith	54	53	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.15	6	2	4	17.6	16.4	1.16	13.7	15.6	-1.83
Jeff Teague	67	66	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	0	8	17.3	16.6	0.67	14.3	14.9	-0.58
Zaza Pachulia	16	18	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	0	8	13.0	18.0	-5.00	17.2	13.8	3.35
Al Horford	76	72	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.22	0	8	-8	18.0	13.0	5.00	13.8	17.2	-3.35
Jannero Pargo	24	24	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	8	-8	17.3	17.1	0.27	14.9	14.3	0.58
Vladimir Radmanovic	38	37	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.12	2	6	-4	16.4	17.6	-1.16	15.6	13.7	1.83
Joe Johnson	73	71	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	6	-4	16.7	18.7	-1.96	14.3	15.2	-0.91
Marvin Williams	43	43	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	7	-6	18.2	16.2	1.98	13.7	15.2	-1.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	49	49	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.07	8	-16	24	13.9	15.2	-1.25	18.2	15.9	2.34
James Jones	16	18	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-13	18	15.4	14.3	1.08	14.3	17.8	-3.48
Joel Anthony	34	36	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-8	8	14.4	14.6	-0.22	16.8	17.4	-0.58
LeBron James	72	75	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-7	6	14.2	15.5	-1.26	16.9	18.2	-1.28
Shane Battier	45	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	1	-10	15.4	13.6	1.78	16.4	17.8	-1.39
Udonis Haslem	55	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	5	-18	15.1	13.5	1.55	17.7	16.3	1.34
Norris Cole	34	35	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	4	-16	15.7	13.7	1.96	16.2	17.7	-1.46
Dwyane Wade	74	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.40	-7	-1	-6	13.7	18.0	-4.27	17.6	15.1	2.47
Chris Bosh	71	73	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.37	-11	3	-14	14.2	15.6	-1.45	17.5	15.7	1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.24,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 106, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.28,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.05,0.16,0	93.5%
MIL 101, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.43,0.41,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.06,0,0	93.3%
UTA 99, HOU 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.43,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	93.1%