NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	125		Excitement	11.7 [17]		MVP	Nikola Joki? (DEN): +64.8%
Denver Nuggets	128		Comeback	4.8 [156]		LVP	Amen Thompson (HOU): -2.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alperen Sengun	0.42	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.42	0.05	0.40	0.03	27	55%	0.58	4	-0.16	6	83%	0.01
Jabari Smith Jr.	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.08	0.14	-0.01	11	73%	0.26	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.09	0.01	14	69%	0.28	5	-0.16	8	87%	0.00
Reed Sheppard	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	-0.03	0.12	-0.01	17	39%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Josh Okogie	0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.02	9	84%	0.19	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
Aaron Holiday	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Clint Capela	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Amen Thompson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	13	45%	0.02	1	-0.05	5	80%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Joki?	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.33,0.33,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.65	0.65	0.12	0.46	-0.07	27	60%	0.76	4	-0.11	11	73%	-0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48	0.48	0.17	0.33	0.01	17	71%	0.56	3	-0.08	15	93%	0.17
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.06	0.29	-0.00	8	61%	0.35	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.15	-0.00	10	57%	0.23	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.10	0.01	9	65%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	3	33%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.00	5	80%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	1.6	29.0	15.4	36.1	0.0	36.5	0.0	14.0	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	2.2	16.6	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +14.3%

DEN +51.5%

HOU -21.9%

DEN +13.5%

HOU -7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	14.9	14.2	117.9	121.9	113.6
season	15.4	14.8		117.3	119.6
opponent	14.1	13.9		115.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
HOU	14.8	13.8	15.0	16.6	19.1	15.3
DEN	14.6	13.4	13.8	17.1	17.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	82	82	0.55	-1.05	1.59	0.31	8	-11	19	15.8	13.6	2.17	15.3	13.2	2.12
Reed Sheppard	92	93	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.01	11	-14	25	16.0	10.4	5.65	15.8	7.7	8.05
Clint Capela	11	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	3	-9	17.0	15.1	1.94	17.1	14.6	2.49
Amen Thompson	104	103	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-2	1	15.5	3.0	12.50	15.1	2.0	13.13
Aaron Holiday	48	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	0	-3	17.2	13.7	3.55	15.9	13.9	1.99
Jabari Smith Jr.	106	105	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	15.3	0.0	15.26	14.9	0.0	14.88
Kevin Durant	106	105	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	15.3	0.0	15.26	14.9	0.0	14.88
Josh Okogie	83	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	-2	1	16.0	12.7	3.28	15.3	13.0	2.26
Alperen Sengun	88	88	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	3	-9	15.8	12.6	3.26	15.1	13.9	1.12

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	99	99	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.37	3	0	3	14.9	14.5	0.40	15.6	10.4	5.18
Spencer Jones	99	99	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.37	3	0	3	14.9	14.5	0.40	15.6	10.4	5.18
Nikola Joki?	102	104	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	-1	5	14.9	13.7	1.25	15.3	11.0	4.35
Bruce Brown	88	86	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.49	-8	11	-19	15.3	12.6	2.73	15.7	13.3	2.36
Tim Hardaway Jr.	94	93	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.40	-10	13	-23	15.6	8.4	7.27	15.9	10.6	5.30
Zeke Nnaji	16	16	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	-2	7	16.1	14.7	1.40	18.7	14.7	4.03
Cameron Johnson	91	94	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	1	1	14.5	17.5	-3.03	15.1	16.7	-1.68
Peyton Watson	12	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	6	-9	15.5	14.8	0.70	15.1	15.3	-0.20
Jonas Valan?i?nas	66	65	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.01	-7	10	-17	14.7	15.3	-0.60	15.8	14.4	1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.62,0.62,0.43,0.53,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.54,0.62,0.78,0.76,0.58,0.5,0.61,0.84,0.86,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 86, SEA 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.96,0.96,1	91.2%
BOS 104, CHI 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.74,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.9,0.95,1	90.7%
GSW 106, SAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.81,0.64,0.57,0.73,0.5,0.75,0.89,0.84,0.92,1	90.3%