NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	136		Excitement	1.9 [455]		MVP	Amen Thompson (HOU): +29.3%
Houston Rockets	132		Comeback	4.0 [116]		LVP	Tari Eason (HOU): -12.1%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Shannon Jr.	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.27	0.20	0.07	-0.00	13	82%	0.27	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mike Conley	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.12	0.14	0.00	3	150%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.10	-0.00	12	60%	0.19	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.06
Joan Beringer	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.02	5	100%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Edwards	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1	0.05	0.03	-0.03	14	65%	0.17	4	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Kyle Anderson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.01	12	59%	0.09	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Ayo Dosunmu	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	10	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaden McDaniels	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	19	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.29	0.07	0.07	22	80%	0.38	2	-0.09	7	100%	0.03
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.23	0.23	0.17	0.06	0.00	18	73%	0.28	3	-0.05	9	78%	-0.01
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.05	0.01	13	79%	0.23	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jae'Sean Tate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	12	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	0.0	31.0	0.0	29.0	0.0	36.1	0.0
league avg	26.5	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.9	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +36.4%

MIN +3.6%

HOU -10.0%

MIN +19.7%

MIN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	14.8	14.2	134.7	133.3	113.4
season	14.0	15.4		113.4	115.5
opponent	14.0	14.1		110.6	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.4	14.1	13.2	15.2	14.0
HOU	14.8	14.7	15.6	14.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ayo Dosunmu	88	87	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-2	8	13.9	14.3	-0.39	14.7	15.5	-0.79
Joan Beringer	75	76	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.39	5	-1	6	14.7	11.8	2.91	15.0	14.2	0.77
Anthony Edwards	72	73	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.38	5	-1	6	14.4	12.9	1.51	14.8	15.0	-0.21
Kyle Anderson	101	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	14.0	0.0	13.97	14.8	0.0	14.81
Mike Conley	91	90	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.22	8	-4	12	13.9	14.4	-0.48	15.2	10.9	4.31
Terrence Shannon Jr.	96	95	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.30	5	-1	6	14.2	8.6	5.65	15.2	6.2	8.92
Jaden McDaniels	93	91	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.43	0	4	-4	14.1	12.0	2.14	14.8	14.5	0.34
Donte DiVincenzo	71	71	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.42	-2	6	-8	14.6	12.4	2.23	14.4	15.8	-1.36
Jaylen Clark	43	42	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	12	-20	14.1	13.9	0.17	14.8	14.8	-0.08

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Holiday	13	12	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-7	10	13.9	14.9	-1.02	13.9	14.0	-0.06
Clint Capela	45	44	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-5	6	14.7	14.9	-0.22	13.9	14.0	-0.15
Reed Sheppard	81	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	5	-14	15.3	12.5	2.82	13.7	15.1	-1.41
Jae'Sean Tate	59	58	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	4	-12	15.4	14.0	1.36	14.4	13.4	1.00
Josh Okogie	82	81	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	0	-4	14.5	16.1	-1.58	14.3	12.5	1.83
Tari Eason	97	99	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	2	-8	14.9	8.0	6.95	14.2	1.0	13.23
Kevin Durant	99	101	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.8	0.0	14.81	14.0	0.0	13.97
Amen Thompson	99	101	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.8	0.0	14.81	14.0	0.0	13.97
Alperen Sengun	75	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	1	-6	14.8	14.9	-0.09	14.4	12.8	1.56
Jabari Smith Jr.	88	87	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.36	-8	4	-12	14.7	15.3	-0.52	14.2	12.4	1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.53,0.58,0.32,0.31,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 100, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.04,0.08,0	93.4%
IND 94, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.03,0,0	93.4%
NOP 121, POR 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.09,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.3%