NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	128		Excitement	6.4 [556]		MVP	Aaron Nesmith (IND): +27.9%
Orlando Magic	126		Comeback	2.1 [130]		LVP	Jevon Carter (ORL): -4.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Nesmith	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.28	0.14	0.12	-0.02	11	79%	0.30	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Pascal Siakam	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19	0.15	0.04	0.01	26	61%	0.24	2	-0.05	9	100%	0.04
T.J. McConnell	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.04	0.00	6	108%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0.11	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.05	-0.02	9	65%	0.14	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jarace Walker	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.01	13	65%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Jay Huff	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Micah Potter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Ben Sheppard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.06	-0.03	15	52%	0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Jett Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	5	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tristan da Silva	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.00	0.03	16	66%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jase Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	5	90%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	11	68%	0.12	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jamal Cain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.10	-0.09	0.03	27	59%	0.14	5	-0.16	12	75%	0.01
Noah Penda	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	0.1	31.0	12.6	35.1	0.0	34.5	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +49.2%

IND +0.8%

ORL -13.3%

IND +11.4%

IND +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ORL	NBA	IND	ORL	NBA
this game	13.8	15.4	14.2	130.6	127.3	113.5
season	13.8	14.1		108.9	112.3
opponent	14.2	14.2		111.3	117.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.0	14.9	11.1	16.8	13.8
ORL	16.2	17.1	15.1	13.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nembhard	93	95	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	-1	4	13.8	13.2	0.64	15.4	15.5	-0.12
Obi Toppin	75	76	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.17	12	-10	22	13.1	16.2	-3.09	16.6	11.2	5.43
Ben Sheppard	82	83	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.14	13	-11	24	13.2	16.9	-3.67	16.6	9.2	7.32
Jay Huff	69	71	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	-2	6	13.9	13.6	0.26	15.3	15.6	-0.31
T.J. McConnell	80	80	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.13	11	-9	20	13.0	17.4	-4.39	16.3	11.6	4.71
Aaron Nesmith	91	91	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.48	-1	3	-4	13.5	17.1	-3.59	15.3	16.7	-1.49
Pascal Siakam	93	95	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.43	0	2	-2	13.8	13.2	0.64	15.6	10.5	5.09
Jarace Walker	95	96	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	2	-2	13.8	12.7	1.18	15.5	12.0	3.49
Micah Potter	81	81	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-6	14	12.9	18.2	-5.36	16.1	11.9	4.20

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jevon Carter	80	79	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.32	3	-5	8	15.3	15.9	-0.63	14.1	12.5	1.59
Wendell Carter Jr.	79	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.36	2	-4	6	15.2	15.9	-0.71	13.9	13.6	0.24
Jett Howard	78	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.09	-9	7	-16	16.2	12.3	3.93	12.7	18.3	-5.53
Paolo Banchero	90	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.45	3	-5	8	15.6	13.7	1.89	13.7	14.3	-0.55
Jamal Cain	83	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	3	-8	15.5	14.7	0.83	14.0	13.1	0.83
Jase Richardson	72	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	10	-22	16.3	13.0	3.33	12.7	16.9	-4.24
Tristan da Silva	85	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.38	-4	2	-6	15.5	14.9	0.61	14.4	10.8	3.58
Noah Penda	57	58	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.03	-16	14	-30	15.9	14.7	1.25	12.4	15.9	-3.50
Goga Bitadze	69	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	13	-28	16.4	13.0	3.42	12.7	16.7	-4.02
Desmond Bane	83	81	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.39	-10	8	-18	15.1	16.7	-1.55	13.6	14.6	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.32,0.19,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0.05,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 95, MEM 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.6,0.52,0.36,0.45,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.01,0,0	93.9%
ORL 121, ATL 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.7%
HOU 83, NOH 74	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	93.5%