NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	132		Excitement	6.2 [590]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +24.0%
Washington Wizards	111		Comeback	1.6 [1211]		LVP	Tristan Vukcevic (WAS): -11.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.20	0.09	0.05	27	65%	0.31	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.04
Chet Holmgren	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.04	0.03	9	75%	0.14	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Kenrich Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.05	0.04	5	79%	0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Jared McCain	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	15	55%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Ajay Mitchell	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	10	70%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alex Caruso	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Barnhizer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	47%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	7	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04
Aaron Wiggins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	5	50%	0.06	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bilal Coulibaly	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.03	-0.01	15	66%	0.15	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamir Watkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.02	-0.02	9	59%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jaden Hardy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.02	0.04	9	68%	0.05	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bub Carrington	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.00	0.04	12	70%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	33%	0.02
Justin Champagnie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Riley	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.02	-0.04	8	47%	0.07	4	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Sharife Cooper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	6	25%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Sarr	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	12	54%	0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Tristan Vukcevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	11	24%	-0.04	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.2	43.1	0.0	27.4	0.0	34.0	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +43.1%

WAS -12.5%

OKC +14.0%

OKC +0.9%

OKC +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	WAS	NBA	OKC	WAS	NBA
this game	13.3	14.8	14.2	128.2	108.8	113.5
season	13.8	13.9		117.0	108.7
opponent	13.9	14.6		120.6	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.5	10.9	12.6	15.7	13.3
WAS	15.4	14.5	13.5	16.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	97	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.09	20	1	19	13.2	14.5	-1.32	14.7	17.8	-3.13
Alex Caruso	87	86	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.02	16	5	11	12.9	15.2	-2.36	14.7	15.6	-0.88
Jared McCain	65	65	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.16	19	2	17	13.0	13.6	-0.56	14.9	14.7	0.15
Kenrich Williams	50	50	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.10	16	5	11	14.1	12.5	1.57	14.7	14.9	-0.16
Aaron Wiggins	74	74	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.10	16	5	11	14.2	10.9	3.33	15.0	14.5	0.50
Isaiah Joe	94	92	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.16	16	5	11	13.3	13.0	0.28	15.0	13.1	1.91
Isaiah Hartenstein	55	54	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.04	11	10	1	14.1	12.2	1.92	14.2	15.6	-1.40
Chet Holmgren	83	82	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.16	14	7	7	13.3	13.1	0.19	14.7	15.5	-0.84
Brooks Barnhizer	45	44	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.17	11	10	1	14.1	12.6	1.52	15.0	14.7	0.27
Jaylin Williams	50	51	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	16	-11	12.8	13.7	-0.84	15.1	14.6	0.51
Cason Wallace	40	40	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	17	-13	13.3	13.2	0.04	14.9	14.8	0.08
Ajay Mitchell	41	42	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	17	-13	13.0	13.4	-0.38	14.9	14.8	0.14

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Champagnie	42	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.02	-2	-19	17	14.9	14.8	0.14	13.1	13.3	-0.19
Alex Sarr	57	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-17	13	14.6	15.1	-0.55	12.6	14.1	-1.54
Bilal Coulibaly	87	90	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.18	-13	-8	-5	14.8	14.7	0.11	13.4	12.1	1.35
Jamir Watkins	74	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.11	-11	-10	-1	14.6	15.4	-0.78	13.8	11.9	1.86
Bub Carrington	86	88	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.15	-14	-7	-7	15.0	13.7	1.35	13.5	12.1	1.39
Will Riley	82	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.05	-17	-4	-13	14.3	17.0	-2.77	13.9	10.7	3.21
Jaden Hardy	79	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.16	-22	1	-23	15.0	14.3	0.67	14.0	11.0	2.97
Anthony Gill	102	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.12	-21	0	-21	14.8	0.0	14.82	13.3	0.0	13.25
Sharife Cooper	102	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.12	-21	0	-21	14.8	0.0	14.82	13.3	0.0	13.25
Tristan Vukcevic	73	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.11	-23	2	-25	14.6	15.4	-0.78	13.4	12.8	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.22,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, CHI 73	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.3%
CHH 103, MIL 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%
SAS 112, BOS 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.0%