NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	112		Excitement	4.9 [837]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +16.2%
Boston Celtics	100		Comeback	1.5 [707]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -7.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.05	11	85%	0.19	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.05	-0.05	12	61%	0.17	4	-0.06	9	67%	-0.03
Tony Parker	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.00	0.04	17	70%	0.18	4	-0.12	3	33%	-0.03
Gary Neal	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	8	75%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	31%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.03	-0.01	11	68%	0.16	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.02	0.03	10	73%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	14	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	63%	0.04	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	7	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	0.05	16	56%	0.04	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	25.6	15.4	25.2	1.0	30.0	123.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +42.5%

BOS -2.6%

SAS +23.4%

BOS -10.4%

BOS -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	15.5	14.2	15.4	115.5	103.1	104.1
season	15.2	14.9		106.4	101.2
opponent	16.2	15.1		101.7	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.9	15.3	14.8	16.0	15.5
BOS	12.9	16.7	15.2	12.2	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	54	54	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.06	19	-7	26	15.5	15.6	-0.14	13.5	15.0	-1.58
Manu Ginobili	46	48	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.09	24	-12	36	15.3	15.7	-0.38	13.8	14.5	-0.74
Boris Diaw	47	47	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	2	8	14.8	16.2	-1.43	14.3	14.0	0.34
Nando De Colo	23	24	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	-1	14	13.9	16.0	-2.11	15.0	13.9	1.16
Danny Green	77	76	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	9	-6	15.8	14.5	1.29	14.2	14.1	0.03
Tony Parker	74	73	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	13	-14	16.0	13.9	2.11	13.9	15.0	-1.16
Gary Neal	62	61	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.16	-4	16	-20	15.2	16.1	-0.97	13.7	15.0	-1.37
Tim Duncan	65	65	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	15	-18	16.0	14.5	1.53	14.0	14.5	-0.50
DeJuan Blair	37	37	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	13	-14	15.9	15.3	0.68	16.6	12.7	3.88

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	17	18	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.07	6	-18	24	13.9	14.2	-0.34	17.4	15.1	2.36
Jason Terry	62	62	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.18	4	-16	20	14.0	14.4	-0.41	16.0	14.6	1.45
Brandon Bass	56	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-7	2	14.7	13.4	1.26	16.1	14.7	1.45
Paul Pierce	72	73	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-11	10	13.5	16.0	-2.53	16.2	13.6	2.53
Kevin Garnett	65	63	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-5	-2	14.1	14.4	-0.31	15.2	16.2	-1.05
Rajon Rondo	79	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-7	2	13.7	16.3	-2.59	15.8	14.2	1.56
Jeff Green	34	33	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	-3	-6	14.3	14.1	0.20	13.7	16.5	-2.77
Courtney Lee	35	34	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.01	-14	2	-16	14.4	14.0	0.32	14.6	16.0	-1.40
Leandro Barbosa	25	24	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.02	-15	3	-18	15.8	13.6	2.15	14.5	15.9	-1.42
Jared Sullinger	40	41	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.04	-14	2	-16	14.8	13.7	1.04	14.8	16.0	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 98, UTA 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0	94.1%
CLE 98, PHI 92	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.35,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	93.9%
DAL 93, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.18,0.06,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0	93.7%