NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	124		Excitement	7.9 [267]		MVP	LeBron James (LAL): +32.2%
Houston Rockets	116		Comeback	2.6 [320]		LVP	Tari Eason (HOU): -23.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.32	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32	0.26	0.09	0.03	14	97%	0.40	2	-0.08	3	67%	-0.03
Rui Hachimura	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.08	0.17	0.00	4	100%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Don?i?	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.2	0.13	0.10	0.04	25	62%	0.41	5	-0.21	14	64%	-0.03
Deandre Ayton	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	10	80%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Austin Reaves	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.09	0.01	9	58%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Jake LaRavia	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Luke Kennard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	3	83%	0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	7	36%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.13	0.17	-0.01	19	62%	0.31	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	11	72%	0.24	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Alperen Sengun	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.16	-0.03	0.06	15	75%	0.19	2	-0.11	6	100%	0.03
Dorian Finney-Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.11,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	-0.07	-0.00	15	56%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Clint Capela	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reed Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	12	46%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.08	-0.13	0.02	13	36%	-0.18	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	1.6	28.1	12.8	33.7	2.3	39.1	142.6
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +79.8%

HOU -7.5%

HOU -10.9%

HOU -13.0%

LAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	HOU	NBA	LAL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.8	15.2	14.2	129.2	120.8	113.4
season	14.5	15.4		115.9	115.0
opponent	14.0	14.1		111.2	114.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.1	12.5	15.6	16.0	14.8
HOU	14.8	16.8	13.2	16.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luka Don?i?	96	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.8	0.0	14.79	15.2	0.0	15.17
Marcus Smart	96	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.8	0.0	14.79	15.2	0.0	15.17
LeBron James	85	86	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	2	4	15.2	11.7	3.46	15.6	11.4	4.20
Deandre Ayton	74	73	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	5	-2	15.2	13.5	1.68	15.9	12.9	3.02
Austin Reaves	91	90	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	6	-4	14.9	12.2	2.73	15.2	14.7	0.53
Rui Hachimura	76	75	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.33	2	6	-4	15.7	11.4	4.22	15.8	13.0	2.71
Luke Kennard	90	89	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.29	3	5	-2	15.3	7.3	7.96	15.2	15.1	0.03
Jake LaRavia	22	23	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	7	-6	14.6	14.9	-0.26	16.5	14.7	1.78
Jaxson Hayes	57	58	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.07	-4	12	-16	15.2	14.2	1.07	14.6	16.1	-1.51

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clint Capela	18	19	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.01	-3	-5	2	14.8	15.3	-0.48	15.8	14.5	1.31
Dorian Finney-Smith	72	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.08	-5	-3	-2	15.3	14.7	0.61	15.3	13.4	1.83
Jabari Smith Jr.	78	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-6	4	15.6	13.3	2.32	14.9	14.5	0.39
Tari Eason	80	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	15.5	13.4	2.08	15.0	13.4	1.68
Josh Okogie	87	89	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-5	2	15.3	13.9	1.41	15.2	10.1	5.01
Alperen Sengun	86	88	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-5	2	15.3	13.8	1.53	15.0	12.6	2.36
Kevin Durant	96	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	15.2	0.0	15.17	14.8	0.0	14.79
Amen Thompson	96	96	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.27	-8	0	-8	15.2	0.0	15.17	14.8	0.0	14.79
Reed Sheppard	95	96	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.28	-8	0	-8	15.1	17.0	-1.85	14.8	0.0	14.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.53,0.59,0.4,0.61,0.22,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 69, OKC 65	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.35,0.28,0.38,0.36,0.24,0.1,0	90.8%
DAL 112, NJN 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.59,0.39,0.38,0.21,0.03,0,0	90.5%
DAL 108, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.27,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.22,0.23,0.05,0	90.5%