NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	7.0 [413]		MVP	Pelle Larsson (MIA): +32.3%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	1.0 [879]		LVP	Kevin Porter Jr. (MIL): -22.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jericho Sims	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	3	100%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Bobby Portis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	14	66%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Taurean Prince	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03	0.07	-0.04	-0.01	9	80%	0.15	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Kuzma	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	5	50%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	7	44%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
AJ Green	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.01	0.03	-0.05	-0.01	24	53%	0.06	3	-0.07	11	64%	-0.07
Cam Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ousmane Dieng	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Porter Jr.	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	8	37%	-0.11	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.32	0.32	0.20	0.13	0.00	14	78%	0.34	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Davion Mitchell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.01	-0.00	9	72%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	-0.00	0.00	12	72%	0.13	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Myron Gardner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	11	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.03	-0.01	20	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	13	69%	0.01
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	30%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	0.0	29.1	0.0	27.3	0.0	37.3	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -0.9%

MIA +10.7%

MIA +30.8%

MIA +9.8%

MIL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	14.5	14.2	104.0	108.7	113.7
season	14.7	12.9		111.3	114.3
opponent	14.5	14.3		112.0	117.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.7	13.8	13.6	14.6	13.6
MIA	13.4	15.5	15.2	14.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cam Thomas	40	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.19	3	-10	13	14.8	12.9	1.87	15.0	14.2	0.79
Kyle Kuzma	63	65	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-1	-5	13.4	14.1	-0.70	14.8	14.0	0.82
Ousmane Dieng	41	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	5	-17	12.6	14.4	-1.82	14.4	14.6	-0.25
Taurean Prince	64	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-2	-3	13.4	14.1	-0.65	14.6	14.5	0.07
Jericho Sims	97	98	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-6	5	13.4	18.7	-5.32	14.9	6.8	8.14
Myles Turner	56	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	7	-21	13.7	13.6	0.16	14.7	14.3	0.41
Kevin Porter Jr.	77	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-2	-3	13.6	13.8	-0.19	14.7	13.9	0.82
Giannis Antetokounmpo	72	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	2	-11	13.5	14.0	-0.50	14.7	14.1	0.56
AJ Green	82	83	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.24	-7	0	-7	13.5	14.1	-0.50	14.7	13.8	0.86
Bobby Portis	88	89	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	1	-9	13.6	14.1	-0.50	14.4	15.1	-0.69
Ryan Rollins	101	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	13.6	0.0	13.64	14.5	0.0	14.54

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davion Mitchell	76	75	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-5	17	14.3	15.3	-0.97	13.9	13.0	0.92
Pelle Larsson	97	95	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	-2	11	14.7	12.7	1.99	13.8	10.5	3.34
Bam Adebayo	103	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	14.5	0.0	14.54	13.6	0.0	13.64
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	102	100	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	0	7	14.7	0.0	14.69	13.6	13.0	0.65
Dru Smith	72	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.07	9	-2	11	14.6	14.5	0.13	13.3	14.5	-1.17
Kel'el Ware	71	69	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	-3	13	15.0	13.5	1.51	13.6	13.7	-0.16
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	96	94	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.27	2	5	-3	14.6	13.4	1.20	13.3	18.3	-4.99
Simone Fontecchio	78	77	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	8	-9	15.0	13.1	1.88	13.3	14.7	-1.40
Myron Gardner	19	20	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	11	-15	15.6	14.3	1.27	14.1	13.5	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.64,0.73,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.89,0.84,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.83,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.76,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.9,0.84,0.87,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 79, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.82,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.96,0.91,1,1	91.8%
MIN 92, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.86,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.85,1	91.8%
DAL 85, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1	91.7%