NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	122		Excitement	6.3 [471]		MVP	Desmond Bane (ORL): +48.1%
Orlando Magic	128		Comeback	1.4 [402]		LVP	Dennis Schr�der (CLE): -9.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.18	0.03	0.06	16	81%	0.25	4	-0.09	5	60%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	8	63%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Keon Ellis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13	0.20	0.01	0.07	9	91%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Evan Mobley	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	13	55%	0.10	0	0.00	7	29%	-0.04
Sam Merrill	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.02	8	72%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Donovan Mitchell	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.03	24	49%	0.12	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Jaylon Tyson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dean Wade	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schr�der	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.48	0.48	0.27	0.17	-0.04	19	73%	0.48	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Tristan da Silva	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.18	0.01	0.05	13	74%	0.15	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jett Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	5	80%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	-0.01	-0.02	18	56%	0.12	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.00
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	7	55%	0.05	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	57%	0.05	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Noah Penda	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	0.0	36.3	0.0	30.9	0.0	38.8	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +22.6%

ORL +8.2%

ORL +6.4%

ORL +12.4%

ORL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ORL	NBA	CLE	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.5	14.2	125.8	132.0	113.4
season	13.6	14.2		116.5	113.4
opponent	14.2	14.6		111.8	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.4	16.3	15.8	13.1	15.2
ORL	12.7	13.0	16.2	16.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Merrill	79	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.26	-2	-4	2	15.0	15.7	-0.63	14.5	14.3	0.27
Jaylon Tyson	64	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	5	-16	15.7	14.1	1.66	14.2	15.0	-0.72
James Harden	87	86	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	0	-6	15.3	13.6	1.73	14.5	14.5	0.05
Dennis Schr�der	64	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	5	-16	15.6	14.2	1.43	14.8	13.8	1.02
Dean Wade	53	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	6	-18	16.2	13.9	2.36	14.8	14.1	0.76
Thomas Bryant	95	96	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	-1	-4	15.4	3.0	12.41	14.6	2.0	12.63
Keon Ellis	97	97	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	15.2	0.0	15.15	14.5	0.0	14.49
Donovan Mitchell	97	97	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	15.2	0.0	15.15	14.5	0.0	14.49
Evan Mobley	74	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	3	-12	15.4	14.3	1.06	14.6	14.0	0.64

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Bane	87	87	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.33	8	-2	10	14.9	11.4	3.45	14.9	17.1	-2.17
Jett Howard	73	71	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.11	12	-6	18	14.5	14.3	0.21	15.5	14.2	1.31
Paolo Banchero	87	87	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.22	8	-2	10	14.4	15.3	-0.90	15.3	13.6	1.73
Jalen Suggs	78	78	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	14.5	14.3	0.22	15.2	14.9	0.32
Tristan da Silva	86	87	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	0	6	14.5	14.5	0.05	15.3	13.6	1.73
Jevon Carter	81	80	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	-2	10	14.2	16.0	-1.80	15.6	12.9	2.76
Wendell Carter Jr.	84	85	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	2	2	14.5	14.4	0.13	15.1	15.3	-0.20
Moritz Wagner	62	60	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	-1	8	14.6	14.3	0.33	15.4	14.8	0.56
Noah Penda	62	60	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	-1	8	14.6	14.3	0.33	15.4	14.8	0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 80, LAL 91	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,1,1,1	94.3%
PHI 87, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.94,1,1,1	94.2%
DEN 114, SAC 119	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.84,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	93.9%