NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	6.2 [512]		MVP	Harrison Barnes (SAC): +30.3%
Sacramento Kings	119		Comeback	1.4 [504]		LVP	Buddy Hield (SAC): -8.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.31	0.04	0.10	33	68%	0.28	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Paul Millsap	0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	8	74%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
JaMychal Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
R.J. Hampton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.03	0.01	11	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markus Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	12	42%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	11	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.23	0.10	0.02	16	76%	0.30	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.20	0.06	0.01	12	85%	0.25	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	0.01	13	70%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	7	61%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	20	55%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Glenn Robinson III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	6	25%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	0.01	-0.03	11	19%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.6	24.6	14.5	27.3	1.8	36.6	131.9
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +39.9%

DEN -4.7%

DEN -0.4%

SAC +12.1%

SAC +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	14.9	14.5	14.4	116.3	121.4	111.3
season	15.0	14.0		116.0	112.2
opponent	14.4	14.4		115.9	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.5	13.7	18.1	12.8	14.9
SAC	13.9	14.5	14.0	15.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlatko Cancar	12	12	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-4	3	14.2	15.0	-0.83	14.3	14.5	-0.18
Paul Millsap	43	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-3	1	15.2	14.7	0.55	15.2	13.9	1.27
Markus Howard	26	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-4	3	14.5	15.1	-0.59	12.7	15.2	-2.41
Monte Morris	69	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-6	7	15.0	14.7	0.30	15.2	12.9	2.31
R.J. Hampton	56	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-1	-3	14.5	15.4	-0.93	14.4	14.6	-0.21
Nikola Jokic	83	84	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-7	9	15.0	14.6	0.35	14.5	14.4	0.07
Will Barton	77	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.47	3	-8	11	14.6	16.0	-1.40	14.5	14.4	0.05
JaMychal Green	55	52	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-2	-1	14.7	15.2	-0.55	14.1	14.9	-0.84
Michael Porter Jr.	69	66	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.09	-20	15	-35	15.7	13.0	2.70	14.4	14.7	-0.25

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrese Haliburton	73	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-7	19	14.1	15.8	-1.71	14.3	16.7	-2.39
Harrison Barnes	75	76	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	-4	13	14.6	14.3	0.30	15.1	14.3	0.75
Buddy Hield	81	81	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.30	1	4	-3	14.5	14.6	-0.19	15.4	12.6	2.79
Richaun Holmes	59	61	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	-1	7	15.0	13.8	1.20	15.1	14.5	0.66
Glenn Robinson III	15	15	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	-1	7	13.7	14.6	-0.89	14.1	15.0	-0.98
De'Aaron Fox	76	76	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	2	1	14.8	13.5	1.28	14.9	14.7	0.22
Hassan Whiteside	38	37	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.22	-1	6	-7	14.0	14.8	-0.76	14.5	15.1	-0.66
Cory Joseph	37	36	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	4	-3	14.0	14.8	-0.74	14.3	15.3	-0.98
Marvin Bagley III	36	35	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.19	-12	17	-29	15.2	14.1	1.11	15.6	14.5	1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.84,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 87, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.94,1,1,1	94.6%
HOU 85, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
CLE 105, MIL 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%