NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	126		Excitement	9.4 [112]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +79.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	129		Comeback	2.5 [534]		LVP	Luguentz Dort (OKC): -13.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Joki?	0.29	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.29	0.17	0.13	-0.00	19	73%	0.42	3	-0.13	6	83%	0.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.27	0.23	0.04	0.00	16	82%	0.29	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Jamal Murray	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.21	-0.00	0.22	0.00	23	43%	0.21	0	0.00	3	100%	0.08
Cameron Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	5	43%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.11	-0.09	0.02	14	61%	0.04	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.02
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Strawther	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	0.00	5	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Christian Braun	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.8	0.80	0.29	0.54	0.03	21	76%	0.80	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.24	0.20	0.00	17	76%	0.47	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Ajay Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.15	0.05	-0.00	16	65%	0.20	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
Jared McCain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.08	0.00	7	81%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.08	-0.01	10	65%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	11	25%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	0.1	34.4	13.6	25.6	0.1	44.2	146.7
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +91.1%

DEN -14.9%

DEN -42.6%

OKC +16.2%

OKC +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	14.1	14.6	14.2	126.0	127.7	113.4
season	14.6	13.8		119.0	116.3
opponent	14.6	14.1		105.4	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.1	15.4	12.5	15.3	14.1
OKC	13.0	13.4	16.8	15.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Strawther	27	28	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-6	9	13.1	14.4	-1.30	13.0	15.2	-2.21
Bruce Brown	85	87	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-4	5	14.5	11.5	3.05	14.7	13.9	0.82
Cameron Johnson	70	69	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-2	1	14.9	12.2	2.66	14.5	14.7	-0.13
Christian Braun	99	100	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-3	3	14.2	3.0	11.17	14.7	5.0	9.66
Nikola Joki?	99	100	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-3	3	14.2	3.0	11.17	14.7	5.0	9.66
Jonas Valan?i?nas	11	12	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	5	-13	19.6	13.4	6.27	12.2	14.9	-2.72
Spencer Jones	65	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	3	-9	15.1	12.2	2.91	15.3	13.2	2.09
Aaron Gordon	75	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.54	6	-9	15	13.9	14.4	-0.45	15.0	13.4	1.63
Tim Hardaway Jr.	100	101	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.1	0.0	14.06	14.6	0.0	14.56
Jamal Murray	86	86	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.38	-6	3	-9	14.6	10.9	3.72	14.8	12.9	1.92

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ajay Mitchell	94	93	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.35	9	-6	15	14.5	14.9	-0.31	14.5	8.7	5.75
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	101	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	14.6	0.0	14.56	14.1	0.0	14.06
Jaylin Williams	101	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	14.6	0.0	14.56	14.1	0.0	14.06
Luguentz Dort	80	80	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	4	-5	15.1	12.6	2.46	14.7	11.5	3.14
Kenrich Williams	62	61	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	1	1	13.8	15.7	-1.92	15.3	12.1	3.21
Jared McCain	97	95	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.11	-3	6	-9	14.8	8.7	6.05	14.3	9.8	4.48
Aaron Wiggins	55	54	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	2	-1	15.1	14.0	1.12	14.1	14.0	0.19
Isaiah Joe	71	73	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.21	-13	16	-29	15.4	12.5	2.89	14.0	14.1	-0.07
Cason Wallace	35	35	-0.69	1.19	-1.87	0.11	-27	30	-57	16.7	13.4	3.29	12.6	14.9	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.33,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.69,0.9,0.98,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.44,0.56,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.81,0.95,0.99,0.98,1	91.1%
DEN 92, POR 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.84,0.98,0.99,1	91.0%
TOR 82, PHX 90	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.94,1,1	90.5%