NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	7.2 [386]		MVP	Linas Kleiza (DEN): +27.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	101		Comeback	1.9 [843]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -15.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Linas Kleiza	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.18	0.10	0.01	10	83%	0.27	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nene	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.00	0.02	6	85%	0.17	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	5	83%	0.17	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	12	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.02
Chucky Atkins	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	15	39%	-0.08	1	-0.06	6	67%	-0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	8	33%	-0.02	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.12	0.13	0.01	12	67%	0.27	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.06
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.03	0.17	0.00	13	58%	0.25	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.04
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	69%	0.12	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.04
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	83%	0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Greg Oden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	14	61%	0.09	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	8	28%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.6	30.0	15.4	30.4	2.0	38.2	142.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +20.6%

POR +19.9%

POR +1.6%

POR +4.6%

POR +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	15.2	17.4	15.5	103.4	114.8	106.4
season	14.4	16.7		109.5	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.7		105.8	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.0	15.7	17.1	14.1	15.2
POR	17.3	16.3	17.1	18.6	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	30	31	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.12	9	-18	27	15.8	14.9	0.90	17.2	17.4	-0.20
Chucky Atkins	33	33	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.16	-6	-3	-3	14.7	15.5	-0.80	17.9	17.0	0.89
J.R. Smith	47	46	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.19	4	-13	17	15.4	15.0	0.43	16.9	17.9	-1.01
Kenyon Martin	68	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-9	9	15.4	14.7	0.64	17.5	16.9	0.59
Nene	73	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-14	19	14.9	16.6	-1.66	17.7	15.7	1.95
Linas Kleiza	51	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	2	-13	14.5	16.1	-1.62	17.1	17.6	-0.47
Chauncey Billups	70	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	0	-9	15.3	15.0	0.26	17.9	15.4	2.46
Chris Andersen	35	36	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	0.06	-21	12	-33	15.9	14.7	1.17	16.4	18.0	-1.68
Anthony Carter	38	38	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.19	-16	7	-23	15.4	15.1	0.34	16.9	17.7	-0.81

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	70	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.22	14	-5	19	17.0	18.5	-1.49	15.4	14.5	0.93
Rudy Fernandez	41	40	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.00	19	-10	29	16.7	17.9	-1.21	15.1	15.3	-0.23
Joel Przybilla	75	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	2	5	17.4	17.2	0.23	15.0	16.1	-1.05
Brandon Roy	66	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	6	-3	17.5	16.9	0.65	15.5	14.2	1.23
Steve Blake	55	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.20	5	4	1	17.6	17.0	0.56	15.7	14.3	1.44
Sergio Rodriguez	32	30	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	4	1	16.9	17.6	-0.70	15.1	15.3	-0.15
Travis Outlaw	44	45	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.04	3	6	-3	18.0	16.7	1.20	13.7	16.8	-3.11
Greg Oden	13	16	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	7	-5	17.2	17.4	-0.23	16.1	15.0	1.05
Channing Frye	20	19	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.02	-5	14	-19	18.5	17.0	1.49	14.5	15.4	-0.93
Nicolas Batum	26	26	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	17	-25	17.0	17.5	-0.45	16.3	14.7	1.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.66,0.53,0.62,0.84,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 93, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.65,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.97,0.98,1	92.5%
HOU 105, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.64,0.8,0.78,0.62,0.9,0.97,0.99,1	91.9%
OKC 112, CHA 123	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.85,0.99,1,1	91.6%