NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	113		Excitement	7.8 [280]		MVP	Desmond Bane (ORL): +42.0%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	25.5 [68]		LVP	Anthony Black (ORL): -25.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.25	0.16	0.15	0.06	28	61%	0.33	2	-0.08	10	100%	0.05
Reed Sheppard	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.16	0.16	0.02	0.02	11	83%	0.17	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jabari Smith Jr.	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.05	0.02	7	93%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.1	-0.03	0.13	0.00	15	50%	0.18	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Josh Okogie	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.06	-0.01	7	43%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	64%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Tari Eason	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.35,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42	0.42	0.23	0.16	-0.03	19	79%	0.45	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	10	70%	0.19	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jett Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan da Silva	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.01	16	45%	0.00	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	-0.05	0.04	8	73%	0.00	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.07
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	6	21%	-0.07	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Black	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26	-0.26	-0.08	-0.14	0.04	12	32%	-0.19	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.0	2.5	24.2	15.4	27.9	2.4	34.2	140.6
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +49.1%

HOU +5.5%

ORL -6.3%

ORL -0.0%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	ORL	NBA	HOU	ORL	NBA
this game	17.0	14.7	14.2	125.6	117.4	113.4
season	15.4	14.2		115.1	113.3
opponent	14.2	14.0		111.8	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.9	20.3	14.9	19.6	17.0
ORL	16.0	12.5	14.5	15.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Okogie	44	46	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.34	15	-10	25	17.0	16.9	0.07	15.0	14.3	0.74
Tari Eason	75	77	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.22	14	-9	23	17.5	14.4	3.08	15.3	11.6	3.67
Kevin Durant	89	92	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.33	8	-3	11	17.1	9.0	8.06	14.7	0.0	14.67
Reed Sheppard	90	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	17.0	0.0	16.97	14.7	0.0	14.67
Jabari Smith Jr.	60	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	6	-7	18.1	14.8	3.30	16.1	11.7	4.36
Alperen Sengun	74	75	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.38	-10	15	-25	17.6	13.9	3.76	14.8	13.9	0.90
Clint Capela	53	55	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	2	1	15.0	19.8	-4.74	15.5	13.4	2.12
Dorian Finney-Smith	45	45	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.05	-12	17	-29	16.8	17.1	-0.29	14.4	14.9	-0.54
Amen Thompson	64	64	-0.61	1.11	-1.72	0.00	-21	26	-47	17.3	16.0	1.31	14.9	14.2	0.61

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Moritz Wagner	70	68	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.04	0	-5	5	15.3	12.6	2.68	16.8	17.4	-0.59
Jalen Suggs	67	67	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-3	1	14.6	14.9	-0.28	16.2	19.2	-2.96
Wendell Carter Jr.	69	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-8	11	14.9	13.9	1.01	18.3	12.6	5.73
Jett Howard	49	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	3	-11	15.2	14.0	1.22	14.5	19.7	-5.19
Anthony Black	66	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-5	5	15.1	13.6	1.48	18.7	12.8	5.85
Paolo Banchero	87	85	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	0	-5	14.9	10.6	4.31	17.2	12.6	4.62
Tristan da Silva	76	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.30	-6	1	-7	15.8	9.5	6.26	17.3	15.1	2.20
Desmond Bane	92	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.7	0.0	14.67	17.0	0.0	16.97
Jevon Carter	83	80	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.26	-10	5	-15	15.5	6.7	8.88	17.0	16.6	0.41
Jonathan Isaac	73	73	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.35	-11	6	-17	15.6	11.2	4.43	16.3	19.7	-3.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.96,0.87,0.73,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.6,0.52,0.46,0.14,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.57,0.63,0.77,0.69,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.28,0.11,0.02,0	91.8%
PHI 102, IND 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.45,0.37,0.01,0,0	91.3%
CHA 92, WAS 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.88,0.86,0.73,0.74,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.61,0.45,0.1,0.16,0	91.1%