NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	124		Excitement	8.6 [194]		MVP	Aaron Nesmith (IND): +28.9%
Indiana Pacers	129		Comeback	2.2 [358]		LVP	Johnny Furphy (IND): -15.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Kispert	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.00	6	85%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.02	15	56%	0.19	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Luke Kennard	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.00	6	79%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	17	52%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.03
Mouhamed Gueye	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	9	56%	0.02	0	0.00	9	78%	0.00
Dyson Daniels	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zaccharie Risacher	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Christian Koloko	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Johnson	-0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.14	0.01	-0.12	0.02	29	50%	0.01	4	-0.15	8	75%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.19	0.12	0.01	10	96%	0.39	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.09	0.03	15	76%	0.28	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Jay Huff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.09	-0.00	11	70%	0.22	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	70%	0.17	4	-0.13	8	100%	0.04
Ben Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.04	0.04	19	60%	0.10	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.03
Jarace Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	12	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Furphy	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.5	31.1	14.2	26.2	0.0	36.2	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +64.5%

IND +2.5%

IND +22.1%

ATL -38.3%

ATL -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	IND	NBA	ATL	IND	NBA
this game	12.5	13.8	14.2	112.7	118.3	113.4
season	13.3	13.8		113.3	108.0
opponent	14.2	14.4		117.1	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	11.8	12.8	12.3	13.3	12.5
IND	15.3	11.2	13.9	15.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaccharie Risacher	66	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-4	3	12.2	13.0	-0.86	13.9	13.6	0.26
Christian Koloko	63	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-4	3	12.3	12.8	-0.49	13.2	14.5	-1.33
Dyson Daniels	88	88	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.34	2	-7	9	12.5	12.7	-0.19	14.4	11.0	3.41
Corey Kispert	96	96	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-8	11	12.5	12.9	-0.46	14.1	11.0	3.13
Mouhamed Gueye	103	103	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-2	-1	12.8	8.1	4.68	13.7	15.2	-1.50
CJ McCollum	109	109	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	12.6	0.0	12.64	13.8	0.0	13.75
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	96	94	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.38	-9	4	-13	12.9	9.8	3.14	13.4	15.9	-2.53
Jalen Johnson	98	96	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.37	-10	5	-15	12.9	9.1	3.87	13.4	16.3	-2.90
Luke Kennard	55	55	-0.68	0.17	-0.85	-0.35	-11	6	-17	13.2	11.9	1.35	12.9	14.6	-1.67

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pascal Siakam	105	107	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	-1	7	13.7	15.5	-1.81	12.6	9.7	2.94
Andrew Nembhard	87	89	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.40	5	0	5	13.6	14.4	-0.77	13.1	10.0	3.12
Bennedict Mathurin	109	110	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	13.8	0.0	13.75	12.5	0.0	12.53
Aaron Nesmith	91	93	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	0	5	13.4	15.4	-2.03	12.9	10.5	2.36
Jay Huff	106	107	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.33	4	1	3	13.9	7.7	6.26	12.7	5.0	7.74
Jarace Walker	81	84	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.39	-3	8	-11	14.2	12.5	1.69	13.0	11.1	1.85
T.J. McConnell	88	89	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.34	-2	7	-9	14.4	11.0	3.41	12.4	13.1	-0.76
Isaiah Jackson	42	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	4	-3	13.0	14.2	-1.15	12.8	12.4	0.41
Ben Sheppard	76	77	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	9	-13	14.3	12.6	1.69	12.3	13.2	-0.89
Johnny Furphy	44	44	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.09	-6	11	-17	13.2	14.1	-0.88	11.7	13.1	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.8,0.85,0.79,0.6,0.61,0.75,0.84,0.96,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 76, LAL 79	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.8,0.7,0.47,0.69,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	92.9%
LAL 104, ORL 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.84,1	92.5%
WAS 95, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.65,0.6,0.69,0.9,0.94,0.98,1	92.4%