NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	109		Excitement	7.6 [239]		MVP	Cade Cunningham (DET): +24.3%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	1.1 [666]		LVP	Peyton Watson (DEN): -15.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cade Cunningham	0.24	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.27,0.24,0.24	0.11	0.14	0.01	17	58%	0.24	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0.24	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.24	0.14	0.15	0.05	15	69%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ausar Thompson	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	7	78%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jalen Duren	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	10	58%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jaden Ivey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ronald Holland II	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.08	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Javonte Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.01	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02	-0.11	0.07	-0.01	9	11%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniss Jenkins	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	8	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.11	0.00	13	54%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.03	0.00	5	120%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.03	0.02	10	73%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	10	67%	0.15	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Julian Strawther	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Pickett	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.13	-0.01	18	47%	-0.04	2	-0.07	15	67%	-0.35
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.03	20	32%	-0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	0.0	22.6	0.0	27.7	0.0	35.5	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +18.8%

DET +0.7%

DEN -1.7%

DET +22.6%

DET +9.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	15.6	14.2	114.7	112.6	113.5
season	14.1	14.8		115.3	119.6
opponent	14.1	14.2		116.0	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.5	14.1	15.1	17.6	14.6
DEN	15.7	13.6	16.2	17.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Javonte Green	82	81	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.43	2	0	2	14.8	13.6	1.19	15.8	14.4	1.41
Isaiah Stewart	81	80	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.39	1	1	0	15.0	12.7	2.26	16.0	13.6	2.41
Jaden Ivey	64	63	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.04	11	-9	20	14.0	16.0	-2.06	15.5	15.8	-0.32
Cade Cunningham	90	90	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.54	-6	8	-14	15.0	7.6	7.43	15.4	19.2	-3.77
Daniss Jenkins	75	73	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	-3	8	15.0	13.3	1.64	15.8	15.1	0.70
Tobias Harris	78	78	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.45	-5	7	-12	14.6	14.9	-0.29	15.8	14.8	1.06
Jalen Duren	82	81	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.47	-6	8	-14	14.7	14.3	0.39	15.7	15.4	0.32
Ausar Thompson	69	69	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.31	-1	3	-4	14.7	14.5	0.25	15.8	15.2	0.66
Ronald Holland II	78	77	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	1	0	14.8	13.8	1.00	16.2	13.3	2.84
Duncan Robinson	79	77	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.41	-9	11	-20	14.7	14.2	0.47	15.6	15.9	-0.39

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Pickett	46	48	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-4	6	14.9	16.3	-1.44	13.3	16.0	-2.69
Julian Strawther	44	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.00	-8	6	-14	15.3	15.9	-0.58	13.8	15.4	-1.54
Jonas Valan?i?nas	72	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-6	10	16.3	13.6	2.67	14.5	15.0	-0.41
Bruce Brown	81	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	2	-6	16.0	13.7	2.25	14.8	13.8	0.93
Jamal Murray	90	90	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.54	6	-8	14	15.4	19.2	-3.77	15.0	7.6	7.43
Spencer Jones	90	90	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.54	6	-8	14	15.4	19.2	-3.77	15.0	7.6	7.43
Tim Hardaway Jr.	95	95	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.44	-2	0	-2	15.6	0.0	15.63	14.6	0.0	14.64
Zeke Nnaji	95	95	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.44	-2	0	-2	15.6	0.0	15.63	14.6	0.0	14.64
Peyton Watson	89	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	2	-6	15.9	11.3	4.59	14.2	22.0	-7.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.29,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.25,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, TOR 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.23,0.32,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0	93.5%
CHA 100, WAS 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0	93.5%
OKC 99, MEM 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.18,0.1,0.03,0,0.03,0	93.3%