NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	95		Excitement	6.2 [488]		MVP	Chet Holmgren (OKC): +20.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Comeback	1.5 [940]		LVP	Jaylin Williams (OKC): -15.3%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karlo Matkovi?	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Alvarado	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	7	57%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.11	-0.03	0.06	11	78%	0.09	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Yves Missi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04
Jeremiah Fears	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.02	9	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	16	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Derik Queen	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	11	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Herbert Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	12	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trey Murphy III	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.18	-0.01	-0.10	20	22%	-0.08	0	0.00	5	60%	0.00
Micah Peavy	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.06	-0.04	14	65%	0.23	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.04	-0.00	11	77%	0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	22	50%	0.07	3	-0.06	14	93%	0.04
Branden Carlson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Barnhizer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ousmane Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	12	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.05	5	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	8	22%	-0.09	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	0.1	33.8	13.4	29.3	0.1	35.3	135.8
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +42.6%

OKC +9.0%

OKC +7.8%

NOP -14.6%

OKC +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	OKC	NBA	NOP	OKC	NBA
this game	14.5	15.0	14.2	96.9	107.2	113.4
season	14.1	13.8		112.3	116.3
opponent	14.6	14.1		105.4	115.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.8	12.0	15.9	15.8	14.5
OKC	12.8	14.2	14.7	19.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derik Queen	70	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-3	-3	13.9	15.9	-2.00	14.9	15.3	-0.46
Herbert Jones	76	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	-2	-5	14.0	16.1	-2.05	15.2	14.3	0.97
Zion Williamson	88	88	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-5	1	14.0	18.5	-4.45	15.3	12.1	3.21
Saddiq Bey	89	89	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-2	-5	14.3	16.4	-2.14	14.9	16.6	-1.75
Trey Murphy III	95	94	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-2	-5	14.6	10.7	3.95	15.1	14.0	1.05
Jeremiah Fears	79	79	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	1	-11	15.1	12.1	3.04	15.2	14.1	1.12
Karlo Matkovi?	61	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.06	-17	8	-25	15.3	13.2	2.11	13.6	17.5	-3.90
Micah Peavy	39	39	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.04	-18	9	-27	15.7	13.7	2.02	14.4	15.4	-1.06
Jose Alvarado	68	67	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.07	-19	10	-29	15.0	13.3	1.78	14.0	17.2	-3.20
Yves Missi	82	82	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.22	-16	7	-23	15.1	11.6	3.51	15.2	14.1	1.13

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Wiggins	85	85	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	0	9	15.4	12.6	2.78	14.8	12.8	1.91
Jaylin Williams	87	87	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.22	10	-1	11	15.6	10.2	5.37	14.9	11.6	3.23
Chet Holmgren	91	92	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.21	10	-1	11	15.3	11.2	4.11	14.4	15.3	-0.89
Kenrich Williams	96	97	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	15.2	1.0	14.17	14.4	29.0	-14.65
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	92	92	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	0	9	14.9	16.4	-1.45	14.5	14.3	0.18
Isaiah Joe	90	92	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.19	8	1	7	14.7	18.7	-3.98	14.4	15.3	-0.89
Ousmane Dieng	82	82	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.22	7	2	5	14.6	17.5	-2.97	14.6	13.7	0.90
Branden Carlson	27	27	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	1	7	14.3	15.3	-1.00	14.9	14.3	0.59
Luguentz Dort	78	78	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	7	-5	15.2	14.3	0.88	13.9	16.9	-3.02
Brooks Barnhizer	33	33	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.09	10	-1	11	13.3	15.9	-2.65	14.4	14.6	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.83,0.93,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, CHH 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.91,0.95,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.7%
ATL 104, MIL 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.93,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.6%
MEM 85, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.9,1,1	94.4%