NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	122		Excitement	9.2 [100]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +37.4%
New Orleans Pelicans	116		Comeback	3.9 [242]		LVP	Zion Williamson (NOP): -26.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.37	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.34,0.25,0.37,0.37	0.19	0.23	0.05	19	74%	0.52	3	-0.14	9	89%	0.03
Peyton Watson	0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.31	0.20	0.13	0.02	16	76%	0.37	2	-0.06	9	89%	0.02
Jalen Pickett	0.29	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.12,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.15	0.13	-0.00	9	89%	0.29	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.09	-0.00	9	72%	0.24	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.05
Aaron Gordon	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	15	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Hunter Tyson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	5	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Zeke Nnaji	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	5	40%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.28,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.05	0.04	18	76%	0.34	4	-0.16	5	100%	0.03
Saddiq Bey	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.09	0.02	8	65%	0.17	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Jordan Poole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.01	9	73%	0.28	3	-0.14	4	100%	0.04
Derik Queen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	10	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Karlo Matkovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Yves Missi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Micah Peavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Fears	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.13	0.01	9	45%	-0.01	4	-0.21	4	100%	0.02
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.26	-0.26	-0.03	-0.22	0.01	12	44%	-0.15	2	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.4	30.1	14.5	30.2	1.3	38.1	139.1
league avg	26.3	2.0	28.9	14.4	29.6	2.3	32.8	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +56.4%

NOP -10.8%

NOP -38.4%

DEN +41.8%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	15.1	13.5	14.2	122.0	114.9	113.6
season	14.8	14.1		119.6	111.3
opponent	14.0	14.1		118.3	115.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.6	15.1	13.9	14.0	15.1
NOP	12.9	12.6	13.8	14.8	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	100	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	15.1	0.0	15.08	13.5	0.0	13.51
Tim Hardaway Jr.	100	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	15.1	0.0	15.08	13.5	0.0	13.51
Bruce Brown	89	91	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.38	4	2	2	15.4	12.3	3.15	14.0	9.0	5.01
Peyton Watson	95	94	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	1	4	14.8	21.0	-6.23	13.4	15.4	-2.06
Zeke Nnaji	82	83	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	5	-4	15.5	13.0	2.54	13.8	12.3	1.51
Aaron Gordon	81	80	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	4	-2	14.8	16.2	-1.33	13.5	13.5	0.05
Jalen Pickett	79	80	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.42	-2	8	-10	15.7	12.6	3.12	13.7	12.9	0.77
Hunter Tyson	6	6	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	13	-20	19.2	14.8	4.35	11.7	13.6	-1.96
Spencer Jones	67	68	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.07	-8	14	-22	14.8	15.6	-0.79	13.1	14.3	-1.17

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karlo Matkovi?	81	79	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.05	1	-7	8	14.0	11.6	2.33	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Micah Peavy	65	64	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.05	1	-7	8	13.5	13.6	-0.15	15.4	14.5	0.91
Jeremiah Fears	84	85	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-5	4	13.7	12.5	1.26	15.2	14.5	0.64
Zion Williamson	72	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-6	6	13.8	12.9	0.92	15.1	14.9	0.21
Yves Missi	97	97	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-4	2	13.9	4.7	9.13	15.5	1.0	14.52
Saddiq Bey	82	83	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.35	-2	-4	2	13.5	13.6	-0.14	14.9	16.1	-1.25
Jordan Hawkins	75	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.37	-3	-3	0	14.0	12.2	1.83	14.7	16.2	-1.55
Derik Queen	83	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	-4	2	13.7	12.7	1.03	15.1	15.1	0.02
Jordan Poole	88	87	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.35	-6	0	-6	14.1	9.8	4.21	15.3	13.3	2.04
Trey Murphy III	94	94	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	0	-6	13.3	16.1	-2.82	15.3	11.8	3.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.7,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.43,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.75,0.37,0.44,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 84, MIN 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.63,0.68,0.26,0	91.1%
MIA 99, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.62,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.65,0.83,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.69,0	91.0%
UTA 106, PHX 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.72,0	91.0%