NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	122		Excitement	5.3 [731]		MVP	Jaden McDaniels (MIN): +24.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	131		Comeback	2.5 [555]		LVP	Darius Garland (CLE): -3.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Merrill	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.19	0.06	0.05	13	76%	0.20	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Evan Mobley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08	0.11	-0.01	0.02	11	83%	0.17	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Jarrett Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donovan Mitchell	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.02	0.04	20	61%	0.10	4	-0.08	9	89%	0.03
Craig Porter Jr.	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	11	58%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaylon Tyson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darius Garland	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	16	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.24	0.24	0.19	0.03	-0.02	14	81%	0.26	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01
Donte DiVincenzo	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.18	0.04	-0.01	13	85%	0.26	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	20	60%	0.18	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	-0.00	5	85%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	21	58%	0.11	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.02
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	6	64%	0.04	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jaylen Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	4	62%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.3	0.0	27.0	0.0	29.1	0.0	31.1	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +42.4%

CLE -4.6%

MIN +6.4%

MIN +3.5%

MIN +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIN	NBA	CLE	MIN	NBA
this game	12.9	14.6	14.2	117.3	124.8	113.5
season	13.8	14.0		116.7	114.2
opponent	14.1	14.5		111.3	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.0	12.4	15.7	10.0	12.9
MIN	13.5	13.4	15.0	16.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	18	19	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.02	5	-14	19	11.6	13.2	-1.62	14.2	14.7	-0.51
Craig Porter Jr.	32	32	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.11	-17	8	-25	14.8	12.0	2.77	14.6	14.7	-0.10
De'Andre Hunter	84	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.27	-5	-4	-1	12.8	13.1	-0.25	15.3	11.5	3.85
Jaylon Tyson	67	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.05	-17	8	-25	13.9	11.0	2.94	14.2	15.4	-1.20
Evan Mobley	98	98	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	2	-13	12.8	13.8	-1.00	14.3	19.1	-4.84
Sam Merrill	104	105	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	12.9	0.0	12.89	14.6	0.0	14.63
Donovan Mitchell	104	105	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	0	-9	12.9	0.0	12.89	14.6	0.0	14.63
Jarrett Allen	90	88	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.21	-13	4	-17	12.8	13.7	-0.95	14.5	15.3	-0.79
Darius Garland	91	90	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.15	-15	6	-21	12.7	14.2	-1.44	14.3	16.5	-2.14

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donte DiVincenzo	85	85	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.09	18	-9	27	14.2	16.4	-2.19	12.9	12.9	-0.00
Rudy Gobert	92	92	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-3	15	14.6	15.0	-0.42	12.7	14.4	-1.72
Jaden McDaniels	88	88	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.11	16	-7	23	15.0	12.6	2.43	12.8	13.2	-0.35
Anthony Edwards	103	103	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.16	12	-3	15	14.7	11.0	3.70	12.9	13.0	-0.11
Julius Randle	105	104	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.24	9	0	9	14.6	0.0	14.63	12.9	0.0	12.89
Jaylen Clark	78	76	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.01	17	-8	25	13.9	16.7	-2.79	14.1	9.6	4.50
Mike Conley	78	77	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.02	17	-8	25	13.9	16.7	-2.79	13.9	10.0	3.96
Naz Reid	80	80	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	-1	11	14.6	14.6	-0.01	13.7	10.2	3.55
Bones Hyland	22	22	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.13	-7	16	-23	15.5	14.4	1.10	12.0	13.1	-1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.93,0.99,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 72, CHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
BKN 104, DEN 124	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.77,0.86,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
PHX 90, GSW 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%