NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	125		Excitement	5.7 [555]		MVP	Naz Reid (MIN): +26.0%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.6 [563]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -9.1%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naz Reid	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.22	0.08	0.04	15	83%	0.31	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Rudy Gobert	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.08	-0.01	7	76%	0.20	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Julius Randle	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	17	66%	0.22	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Edwards	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.16	0.02	0.05	19	63%	0.16	2	-0.03	14	79%	0.01
Jaden McDaniels	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	4	62%	0.06	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	2	83%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jaylen Clark	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bones Hyland	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	13	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.03	7	69%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Norman Powell	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	13	62%	0.11	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.02	7	60%	0.08	1	-0.00	1	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	12	46%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Nikola Jovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	67%	0.09	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Myron Gardner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.08	3	117%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.02	0.06	10	70%	0.05	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	13	43%	0.01	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	0.0	30.9	0.0	29.5	0.0	36.2	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +43.4%

MIA -6.4%

MIA -1.6%

MIN +14.2%

MIN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	13.6	14.2	125.0	115.0	113.4
season	13.9	12.8		115.1	113.9
opponent	14.4	14.1		110.8	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.3	17.0	14.1	15.6	15.2
MIA	13.1	17.3	12.6	12.1	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julius Randle	100	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	15.1	0.0	15.15	13.6	0.0	13.59
Anthony Edwards	100	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	15.1	0.0	15.15	13.6	0.0	13.59
Bones Hyland	62	63	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	0	10	15.3	14.9	0.37	14.3	12.4	1.84
Jaden McDaniels	73	73	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.09	12	-2	14	15.0	15.5	-0.45	14.1	12.2	1.87
Donte DiVincenzo	76	75	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	-2	14	15.2	15.0	0.14	14.4	11.2	3.19
Rudy Gobert	84	85	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	3	4	15.0	15.9	-0.86	13.7	13.0	0.69
Naz Reid	76	75	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.07	15	-5	20	15.1	15.3	-0.19	14.2	11.6	2.60
Mike Conley	80	81	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	4	2	14.7	16.9	-2.25	13.1	15.5	-2.39
Jaylen Clark	28	28	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	10	-10	14.8	15.3	-0.51	14.6	13.2	1.41

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	35	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-8	6	15.4	12.6	2.78	15.3	15.1	0.22
Myron Gardner	26	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-4	-2	12.1	14.1	-1.99	15.6	15.0	0.58
Dru Smith	76	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-1	-8	14.3	11.2	3.08	15.0	15.5	-0.48
Norman Powell	68	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.15	-21	11	-32	14.8	10.9	3.90	15.2	15.0	0.22
Davion Mitchell	84	84	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	2	-14	13.6	13.7	-0.19	15.3	14.4	0.85
Andrew Wiggins	64	64	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.08	-20	10	-30	14.8	11.4	3.35	14.2	16.8	-2.54
Nikola Jovi?	82	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.03	-19	9	-28	14.2	10.9	3.23	15.0	16.0	-1.02
Simone Fontecchio	66	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.17	-12	2	-14	13.8	13.2	0.63	15.1	15.3	-0.25
Bam Adebayo	87	88	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.00	-20	10	-30	14.0	10.7	3.33	15.3	13.8	1.50
Kel'el Ware	92	93	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.18	-14	4	-18	13.7	12.2	1.46	15.1	16.1	-1.07
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	89	89	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.18	-15	5	-20	13.8	12.3	1.48	15.1	15.4	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.27,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.33,0.25,0.34,0.25,0.1,0.09,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, GSW 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.22,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.05,0,0,0	94.5%
UTA 110, MIL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.23,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
ORL 124, PHI 115	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0	93.8%