NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	124		Excitement	1.5 [756]		MVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): +26.0%
Philadelphia 76ers	115		Comeback	2.1 [703]		LVP	Elfrid Payton (ORL): -11.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0.26	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.21	0.07	0.02	21	69%	0.28	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.05
Evan Fournier	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.10	0.01	13	75%	0.26	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mario Hezonja	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	8	50%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
CJ Watson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.05	3	43%	0.02	2	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.02	0.06	12	67%	0.07	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.02
Aaron Gordon	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	10	42%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	50%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Elfrid Payton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	4	21%	-0.12	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.06

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ish Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	15	58%	0.15	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Isaiah Canaan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Robert Covington	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	8	67%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Hollis Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.01	0.05	9	67%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	9	67%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
TJ McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	58%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Kendall Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jahlil Okafor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	13	61%	0.05	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.00	5	45%	-0.02	4	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.4	33.2	14.8	27.2	0.1	40.3	143.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI -4.9%

ORL +18.0%

ORL +7.3%

ORL +32.4%

PHI -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	PHI	NBA	ORL	PHI	NBA
this game	12.2	14.6	14.9	112.7	109.5	105.1
season	14.6	14.8		103.6	97.7
opponent	14.2	14.9		108.0	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	10.7	12.4	12.5	13.4	12.2
PHI	14.6	15.9	14.2	13.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	44	40	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.26	13	-4	17	12.7	11.9	0.77	13.7	15.1	-1.41
Evan Fournier	93	89	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-1	11	13.0	8.3	4.67	15.2	11.1	4.17
Ersan Ilyasova	43	42	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	3	3	12.0	12.4	-0.36	14.6	14.6	0.03
Nikola Vucevic	83	78	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-1	11	12.6	11.3	1.31	14.8	14.0	0.76
Victor Oladipo	94	91	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	5	-1	12.2	12.6	-0.37	14.3	16.9	-2.60
Jason Smith	23	24	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	9	-9	11.9	12.3	-0.42	14.8	14.5	0.30
Aaron Gordon	71	66	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.05	2	7	-5	12.1	12.5	-0.37	14.3	15.2	-0.88
Mario Hezonja	25	24	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	6	-3	11.6	12.4	-0.78	15.1	14.5	0.63
Elfrid Payton	50	46	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.17	9	0	9	11.1	13.2	-2.03	14.8	14.4	0.40
Brandon Jennings	24	25	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.12	-12	21	-33	11.7	12.4	-0.63	14.1	14.7	-0.63

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Covington	62	68	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-12	15	13.6	16.0	-2.45	11.6	13.3	-1.76
Ish Smith	57	59	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-11	13	15.1	14.0	1.07	13.4	10.9	2.43
Richaun Holmes	17	18	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-12	15	12.8	14.9	-2.12	11.6	12.4	-0.76
Nik Stauskas	50	57	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-6	3	15.4	13.9	1.53	12.1	12.4	-0.33
Nerlens Noel	67	72	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	-2	-5	14.9	14.1	0.73	12.6	11.6	0.94
Kendall Marshall	10	12	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-5	1	11.7	14.9	-3.21	10.2	12.5	-2.24
TJ McConnell	37	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-2	-5	15.0	14.4	0.62	12.0	12.4	-0.41
Jahlil Okafor	56	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	1	-11	16.1	12.9	3.11	12.3	12.2	0.02
Isaiah Canaan	45	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-7	5	14.7	14.5	0.16	11.6	12.7	-1.17
Jerami Grant	58	59	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.13	-13	4	-17	14.4	14.8	-0.34	13.1	11.3	1.77
Hollis Thompson	66	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.33	-7	-2	-5	13.8	16.0	-2.27	12.1	12.4	-0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.18,0.18,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 110, MIN 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.23,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.2%
OKC 116, DAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.23,0.33,0.44,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	93.1%
SAC 100, DET 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.48,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0	93.0%