NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	110		Excitement	5.4 [742]		MVP	Darius Songaila (WAS): +16.6%
Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Comeback	1.4 [488]		LVP	Craig Smith (MIN): -6.7%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Songaila	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.02	0.02	9	86%	0.19	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.05	0.02	20	54%	0.13	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.04
Antawn Jamison	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	19	55%	0.17	3	-0.08	9	78%	0.02
Dominic McGuire	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Nick Young	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	53%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Juan Dixon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.04	0.02	6	56%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Javaris Crittenton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	17	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	10	64%	0.09	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	14	55%	0.10	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	14	52%	0.01	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	2	75%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	14	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.8	29.0	14.8	26.3	2.7	27.4	125.6
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +35.7%

WAS +7.8%

WAS +1.8%

WAS +6.0%

MIN -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIN	NBA	WAS	MIN	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	15.5	119.6	108.8	106.4
season	15.9	15.8		103.5	104.3
opponent	15.1	15.2		109.2	111.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.1	15.3	14.4	15.8	15.4
MIN	18.1	16.0	15.6	14.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	77	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.23	8	3	5	15.7	13.7	2.03	16.3	15.3	0.97
Juan Dixon	48	47	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	2	7	14.5	16.3	-1.82	15.9	16.3	-0.40
JaVale McGee	23	23	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	0	11	15.3	15.4	-0.09	16.9	15.8	1.07
Nick Young	30	30	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	0	11	15.9	15.1	0.74	16.3	16.0	0.28
Andray Blatche	47	46	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	4	3	15.5	15.2	0.29	15.5	16.8	-1.32
Dominic McGuire	57	57	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	9	-7	14.9	16.2	-1.34	16.3	15.8	0.46
Antawn Jamison	72	72	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	10	-9	15.2	15.9	-0.68	15.8	17.1	-1.26
Darius Songaila	55	55	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.10	2	9	-7	15.8	14.8	0.98	16.4	15.7	0.73
Javaris Crittenton	51	50	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	7	-3	15.6	15.0	0.62	16.0	16.2	-0.20

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Carney	14	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-7	3	16.0	16.1	-0.13	15.1	15.4	-0.34
Bobby Brown	18	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-8	5	15.8	16.2	-0.34	15.0	15.5	-0.47
Kevin Love	61	61	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.14	0	-11	11	15.6	17.2	-1.63	15.5	15.2	0.27
Sebastian Telfair	73	73	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-10	9	15.8	17.4	-1.59	15.1	16.4	-1.33
Kevin Ollie	10	11	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	-4	-3	16.7	16.0	0.66	16.9	15.2	1.75
Mike Miller	76	77	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-7	3	15.9	17.2	-1.31	15.1	16.9	-1.79
Ryan Gomes	71	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-6	1	16.1	16.0	0.14	15.4	15.1	0.28
Randy Foye	63	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	-3	-5	16.5	15.2	1.24	16.4	13.1	3.25
Craig Smith	34	34	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	1	-13	16.9	15.7	1.19	14.2	16.1	-1.85
Brian Cardinal	35	36	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.11	-11	0	-11	16.7	15.7	0.98	15.4	15.3	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.34,0.23,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 88, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%
GSW 116, NOH 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%
LAL 122, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.5,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%