NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	118		Excitement	5.3 [658]		MVP	Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA): +17.5%
Detroit Pistons	112		Comeback	1.6 [336]		LVP	Ronald Holland II (DET): -11.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18	0.09	0.08	-0.01	12	70%	0.23	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Norman Powell	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.20	0.03	0.09	23	71%	0.22	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Dru Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	90%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.03	14	47%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	7	57%	0.06	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	20	40%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	6	29%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jovi?	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	10	23%	-0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.05	0.02	10	82%	0.18	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Javonte Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	7	69%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	16	62%	0.16	7	-0.12	18	94%	0.06
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	4	90%	0.04	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	12	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	0.04	8	63%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Jaden Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	0.05	5	50%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Holland II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	1.4	30.0	14.4	27.3	2.3	34.3	140.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.5%

DET -9.4%

MIA +18.2%

MIA +9.4%

MIA +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	13.2	13.1	14.2	106.3	103.7	113.7
season	12.9	14.1		114.3	115.6
opponent	14.3	14.5		108.1	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	11.5	12.6	12.6	16.0	13.2
DET	15.6	11.4	14.0	11.5	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	102	100	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.26	9	-3	12	13.4	10.7	2.72	13.0	13.6	-0.57
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	111	108	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	13.2	0.0	13.16	13.1	0.0	13.09
Kel'el Ware	77	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.11	8	-2	10	13.4	12.5	0.91	13.5	12.1	1.44
Norman Powell	102	99	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.39	-4	10	-14	13.6	8.6	5.01	12.7	17.9	-5.23
Davion Mitchell	96	93	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.36	-3	9	-12	13.7	9.7	4.04	12.6	16.3	-3.76
Dru Smith	78	77	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.12	3	3	0	12.6	14.6	-2.05	13.8	11.4	2.35
Nikola Jovi?	84	82	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.16	1	5	-4	13.0	13.7	-0.76	13.9	10.6	3.26
Andrew Wiggins	82	81	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.42	-12	18	-30	13.8	11.2	2.60	12.5	14.8	-2.25
Simone Fontecchio	36	35	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	8	-10	13.3	13.1	0.21	11.5	13.9	-2.42
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	22	22	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	8	-10	12.4	13.4	-1.00	13.8	12.9	0.91

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Reed	37	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-6	6	14.1	12.6	1.46	14.0	12.7	1.26
Isaiah Stewart	90	90	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-9	12	12.6	15.4	-2.82	13.9	10.1	3.78
Ronald Holland II	73	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-1	-4	13.8	11.7	2.08	12.7	14.2	-1.49
Jalen Duren	61	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	6	-18	13.6	12.4	1.18	12.6	13.8	-1.15
Ausar Thompson	82	85	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-1	-4	12.5	14.8	-2.26	13.9	10.7	3.18
Marcus Sasser	101	103	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-5	4	13.2	11.3	1.93	13.4	9.6	3.81
Javonte Green	89	92	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-4	2	13.4	11.8	1.58	13.2	12.7	0.51
Jaden Ivey	92	94	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	3	-12	13.6	10.0	3.63	12.8	15.1	-2.24
Duncan Robinson	71	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.07	-18	12	-30	13.5	12.3	1.21	12.4	14.6	-2.28
Cade Cunningham	102	105	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	1	-8	13.0	14.0	-0.96	13.3	11.3	1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.17,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.2,0.09,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 112, DAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.7%
POR 104, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.4%
GSW 120, CLE 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.5,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.57,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.43,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.01,0	94.2%