NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	116		Excitement	6.6 [507]		MVP	Derrick White (BOS): +41.0%
Boston Celtics	129		Comeback	2.7 [650]		LVP	Dru Smith (MIA): -17.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kel'el Ware	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.24	0.04	0.06	12	92%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.02	0.02	13	61%	0.10	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Myron Gardner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	13	46%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	13	50%	0.06	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.03
Keshad Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladislav Goldin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	21	38%	-0.03	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	0.01	0.00	15	41%	0.03	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Dru Smith	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	10	28%	-0.11	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.26	0.12	-0.03	20	79%	0.44	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.09	0.04	6	125%	0.24	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Simons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	10	70%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Hugo Gonz�lez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	7	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	45%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	0.01	0.08	18	64%	0.14	5	-0.13	11	91%	0.03
Baylor Scheierman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Minott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Walsh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	0.0	28.3	0.0	35.2	0.0	29.3	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +63.6%

BOS +6.8%

MIA -18.5%

MIA -1.7%

MIA -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	13.3	14.4	14.2	112.6	122.9	113.5
season	12.9	15.5		114.9	118.9
opponent	14.3	14.5		110.6	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.0	13.7	13.1	14.6	13.3
BOS	14.1	13.0	14.6	16.1	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	83	83	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-8	3	13.8	11.0	2.83	14.9	12.4	2.51
Myron Gardner	89	91	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-10	7	13.1	14.2	-1.08	14.9	10.8	4.16
Simone Fontecchio	86	89	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-7	1	13.5	12.4	1.11	14.6	13.0	1.64
Kel'el Ware	78	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-4	-5	13.7	12.0	1.69	15.0	12.5	2.52
Norman Powell	90	89	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.07	-15	2	-17	13.5	12.1	1.38	14.7	12.9	1.71
Keshad Johnson	24	23	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.08	-10	-3	-7	14.6	12.9	1.70	16.1	13.9	2.17
Vladislav Goldin	24	23	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.08	-10	-3	-7	14.6	12.9	1.70	16.1	13.9	2.17
Dru Smith	85	87	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-3	-7	13.1	13.9	-0.80	13.8	17.2	-3.35
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	102	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	6	-25	13.3	7.0	6.34	14.3	16.5	-2.15
Bam Adebayo	102	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	6	-25	13.3	7.0	6.34	14.3	16.5	-2.15

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Hauser	84	82	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	0	13	14.9	12.2	2.75	13.2	13.4	-0.18
Hugo Gonz�lez	105	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	0	13	14.4	0.0	14.39	13.3	0.0	13.28
Derrick White	103	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-6	25	14.3	16.5	-2.15	13.3	7.0	6.34
Anfernee Simons	84	83	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	0	13	14.9	12.2	2.75	13.4	12.6	0.78
Jaylen Brown	93	94	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.06	18	-5	23	14.6	12.7	1.95	13.5	10.6	2.99
Jordan Walsh	74	73	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.12	15	-2	17	14.9	13.2	1.65	14.1	11.3	2.75
Baylor Scheierman	32	32	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.05	12	1	11	16.3	13.5	2.81	14.7	12.7	1.99
Neemias Queta	63	60	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	9	-5	15.6	12.5	3.11	13.6	12.9	0.68
Payton Pritchard	65	64	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	16	-19	14.4	14.4	-0.06	13.2	13.4	-0.25
Josh Minott	42	40	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	18	-23	14.6	14.2	0.38	12.4	13.8	-1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.41,0.47,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 113, ORL 133	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.35,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.88,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%
CHA 75, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.3%
NYK 94, BOS 115	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.81,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.1%