NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	127		Excitement	7.0 [151]		MVP	Kel'el Ware (MIA): +20.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	117		Comeback	1.0 [241]		LVP	Justin Edwards (PHI): -14.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kel'el Ware	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.12	0.09	0.00	13	65%	0.21	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Norman Powell	0.20	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.23	0.02	0.06	18	71%	0.21	1	-0.01	9	67%	-0.02
Bam Adebayo	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	14	56%	0.09	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Dru Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	7	64%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.10	-0.00	0.06	12	81%	0.18	4	-0.15	3	67%	-0.02
Simone Fontecchio	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myron Gardner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jahmir Young	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Keshad Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.17	-0.00	-0.05	13	19%	-0.08	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.03

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trendon Watford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	12	66%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	23	56%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jared McCain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.02	0.02	11	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.02	14	52%	0.11	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	12	54%	0.05	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Johni Broome	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Walker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hunter Sallis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Dominick Barlow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.03	8	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	10	40%	-0.03	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Justin Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	8	44%	-0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	0.0	27.9	0.0	37.6	0.0	30.1	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.1%

MIA +2.1%

MIA +13.3%

MIA +1.7%

PHI -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	11.9	15.1	14.1	118.7	110.4	113.7
season	12.4	14.7		113.4	113.7
opponent	13.6	14.7		112.0	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	11.2	13.5	11.5	11.5	11.9
PHI	13.9	15.3	16.9	14.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Simone Fontecchio	90	89	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.14	14	-4	18	11.7	13.0	-1.31	15.0	15.6	-0.61
Keshad Johnson	96	95	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-3	16	11.9	11.8	0.09	15.3	14.0	1.26
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	104	103	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-2	14	11.8	13.7	-1.82	15.4	5.3	10.08
Norman Powell	87	85	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	2	6	11.8	12.1	-0.31	15.6	13.4	2.18
Davion Mitchell	90	90	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	3	4	11.8	12.6	-0.82	15.7	11.8	3.91
Bam Adebayo	90	90	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	3	4	11.8	12.6	-0.82	15.7	11.8	3.91
Kel'el Ware	89	90	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	3	4	12.0	11.5	0.48	15.3	14.3	0.97
Dru Smith	90	90	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.11	7	3	4	12.0	11.5	0.51	15.4	13.6	1.78
Pelle Larsson	90	87	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	8	-6	11.8	12.2	-0.33	15.4	13.7	1.70
Myron Gardner	25	25	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	4	2	11.3	12.1	-0.81	15.5	15.0	0.46
Jahmir Young	28	27	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	6	-2	11.5	12.0	-0.49	14.7	15.3	-0.57

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul George	62	64	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-8	6	16.2	13.7	2.52	11.8	12.0	-0.13
Hunter Sallis	27	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-6	2	14.7	15.3	-0.57	11.5	12.0	-0.49
Johni Broome	27	28	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-6	2	14.7	15.3	-0.57	11.5	12.0	-0.49
Jabari Walker	67	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-1	-8	15.0	15.3	-0.24	11.9	11.9	-0.08
Andre Drummond	93	95	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-4	-2	15.7	11.3	4.36	11.6	14.2	-2.56
Quentin Grimes	76	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	2	-14	15.5	14.2	1.35	11.8	12.2	-0.47
Dominick Barlow	89	90	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.24	-8	-2	-6	15.4	13.5	1.91	11.8	12.2	-0.33
Tyrese Maxey	103	103	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	15.3	10.0	5.28	11.8	14.2	-2.44
Jared McCain	106	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	15.1	0.0	15.13	11.9	0.0	11.90
Trendon Watford	94	96	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	4	-18	15.2	14.5	0.71	11.9	11.8	0.09
Justin Edwards	90	90	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.04	-20	10	-30	15.5	13.1	2.44	11.8	12.6	-0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.15,0.18,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, SAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.34,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	93.6%
NYK 128, CHI 117	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.28,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0,0,0	93.2%
SEA 95, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.24,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.02,0,0,0	93.1%