NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	96		Excitement	7.6 [128]		MVP	Norman Powell (MIA): +24.2%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	2.2 [206]		LVP	Brandin Podziemski (GSW): -14.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quinten Post	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.05	-0.02	13	73%	0.25	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	3	62%	0.11	1	-0.05	7	57%	-0.01
Gary Payton II	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Richard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gui Santos	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	7	25%	-0.02	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Pat Spencer	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	13	42%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Moses Moody	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	12	35%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Buddy Hield	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.02	20	45%	0.01	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.08	0.02	19	44%	-0.07	3	-0.07	7	86%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.22	0.10	0.08	14	86%	0.26	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.03	0.04	13	69%	0.13	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.05	-0.02	12	41%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.02	16	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	10	40%	0.02	4	-0.09	5	80%	0.03
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	10	32%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	5	29%	-0.06	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	11	38%	-0.09	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	0.0	32.6	0.0	28.9	0.0	29.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -1.0%

MIA +11.4%

MIA +1.0%

MIA +36.8%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	12.0	14.1	90.6	103.8	113.7
season	14.7	12.4		112.4	113.4
opponent	14.7	13.6		110.6	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.3	16.6	17.4	12.7	15.1
MIA	10.3	12.2	13.1	12.6	12.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton II	70	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	-4	-6	16.1	13.3	2.72	11.6	12.7	-1.09
Gui Santos	51	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	-3	-8	17.3	13.2	4.09	13.0	11.0	1.96
Moses Moody	106	106	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	0	-14	15.1	0.0	15.13	12.0	0.0	12.00
Buddy Hield	106	106	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	0	-14	15.1	0.0	15.13	12.0	0.0	12.00
Quinten Post	101	102	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	0	-14	15.2	13.6	1.61	12.3	5.5	6.75
Pat Spencer	105	105	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.10	-16	2	-18	15.0	24.0	-8.95	12.1	1.0	11.10
Trayce Jackson-Davis	82	83	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.10	-16	2	-18	16.3	11.3	4.96	12.6	10.0	2.55
Brandin Podziemski	89	91	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.10	-19	5	-24	15.3	14.3	1.00	12.0	12.3	-0.31
Will Richard	49	49	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.04	-31	17	-48	16.8	13.7	3.17	11.8	12.2	-0.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davion Mitchell	79	78	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.05	24	-10	34	12.4	11.0	1.39	15.5	14.1	1.44
Bam Adebayo	84	83	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.02	24	-10	34	12.3	11.0	1.26	16.1	11.6	4.50
Norman Powell	79	78	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.02	18	-4	22	12.4	10.9	1.54	15.9	13.0	2.85
Andrew Wiggins	106	106	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	0	14	12.0	0.0	12.00	15.1	0.0	15.13
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	106	106	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	0	14	12.0	0.0	12.00	15.1	0.0	15.13
Dru Smith	95	95	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	6	2	12.1	11.0	1.12	15.4	12.9	2.48
Kel'el Ware	75	77	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	2	10	11.9	12.3	-0.46	15.6	13.9	1.75
Pelle Larsson	81	80	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.19	6	8	-2	12.2	11.4	0.79	16.0	12.5	3.49
Simone Fontecchio	73	73	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	11	-8	12.2	11.7	0.48	15.9	13.4	2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.68,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.67,0.73,0.61,0.48,0.62,0.61,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.82,0.89,0.97,0.89,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	92.5%
ORL 87, IND 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.52,0.4,0.6,0.42,0.43,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.88,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.3%
CLE 111, WAS 119	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.84,0.98,0.99,1	92.1%