NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	120		Excitement	6.3 [186]		MVP	Jake LaRavia (LAL): +19.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	130		Comeback	1.0 [315]		LVP	Simone Fontecchio (MIA): -15.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.07	0.05	16	69%	0.22	4	-0.08	13	69%	0.03
Kel'el Ware	0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	3	117%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.00	0.03	11	65%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Pelle Larsson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.03	10	71%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Davion Mitchell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
Nikola Jovi?	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	45%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Dru Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	16	43%	0.02	4	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Simone Fontecchio	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.10	0.02	10	37%	-0.13	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jake LaRavia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.19	0.01	0.01	13	83%	0.24	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.04	-0.03	9	61%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.14	0.00	0.03	7	107%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	12	62%	0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Austin Reaves	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.04	0.02	22	53%	0.10	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dalton Knecht	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bronny James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Don?i?	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	22	52%	0.08	5	-0.10	12	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	36.2	0.0	30.2	0.0	27.4	0.0	31.4	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +35.2%

MIA -4.3%

LAL +9.7%

LAL +8.1%

LAL +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	11.7	15.2	14.1	113.2	120.4	113.7
season	12.4	14.5		113.4	117.0
opponent	14.0	14.7		115.3	110.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	11.6	11.6	10.6	13.0	11.7
LAL	12.3	15.1	16.4	17.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dru Smith	75	76	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-14	18	11.3	12.5	-1.21	14.7	16.4	-1.77
Kel'el Ware	50	50	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-10	10	12.2	11.2	0.95	15.2	15.2	0.05
Nikola Jovi?	91	92	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.13	-9	-1	-8	11.6	12.1	-0.55	14.6	18.7	-4.10
Simone Fontecchio	86	87	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	-1	-8	11.7	11.6	0.01	14.7	17.0	-2.30
Pelle Larsson	79	81	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	1	-12	12.1	10.5	1.58	16.2	12.0	4.21
Davion Mitchell	85	86	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.21	-13	3	-16	12.1	9.9	2.19	16.0	12.1	3.90
Bam Adebayo	97	98	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	2	-14	11.8	10.1	1.69	15.7	10.1	5.61
Andrew Wiggins	103	105	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.25	-14	4	-18	11.8	8.0	3.77	15.3	11.3	3.97
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	103	105	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.25	-14	4	-18	11.8	8.0	3.77	15.3	11.3	3.97

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luka Don?i?	97	97	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-2	14	15.7	10.4	5.38	11.8	10.1	1.69
Jaxson Hayes	78	77	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.09	17	-7	24	16.1	13.0	3.08	12.3	10.0	2.33
Austin Reaves	107	105	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	-2	14	15.2	13.0	2.21	11.7	9.0	2.69
Jake LaRavia	108	106	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	15.2	0.0	15.19	11.7	0.0	11.66
Marcus Smart	88	88	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.13	12	-2	14	15.9	12.1	3.74	12.1	9.3	2.80
Bronny James	102	100	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.12	12	-2	14	15.2	15.0	0.21	11.7	10.5	1.23
Rui Hachimura	75	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	0	10	15.5	14.5	0.98	12.1	10.6	1.48
Dalton Knecht	70	72	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	10	-10	16.5	12.8	3.67	11.9	11.1	0.76
Jarred Vanderbilt	57	57	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	15	-20	14.3	16.2	-1.97	11.2	12.2	-1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.86,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 77, SAC 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.5%
SAS 86, SEA 94	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	93.5%
NYK 95, WAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.82,0.86,0.78,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.3%