NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	77		Excitement	5.3 [770]		MVP	Brad Miller (SAC): +20.4%
Sacramento Kings	86		Comeback	1.0 [1284]		LVP	Rafer Alston (HOU): -29.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.05	0.03	10	65%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	19	55%	0.06	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	12	70%	0.17	6	-0.19	3	100%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.00	8	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	9	41%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	0%	-0.07
David Wesley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	4	37%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.06	-0.06	11	4%	-0.17	6	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.12	0.04	18	65%	0.23	2	-0.02	10	80%	0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.03	-0.04	15	64%	0.18	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	13	47%	0.05	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	11	42%	0.00	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	21%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	31.4	16.4	23.2	1.8	28.4	126.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +6.3%

SAC +16.1%

SAC +8.8%

SAC +13.2%

SAC +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAC	NBA	HOU	SAC	NBA
this game	17.0	17.1	15.6	91.7	101.2	104.4
season	16.1	15.3		99.9	104.7
opponent	15.5	16.1		103.8	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.8	17.1	15.3	19.2	17.0
SAC	13.9	14.8	19.0	21.9	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Hayes	1	2	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-11	13	21.0	17.0	4.04	11.5	17.2	-5.70
Dikembe Mutombo	14	16	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-11	13	20.0	16.4	3.59	17.4	17.0	0.45
Rick Brunson	9	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-11	13	12.8	17.5	-4.74	17.4	17.0	0.37
Juwan Howard	63	64	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-9	9	17.0	16.9	0.14	17.1	16.9	0.22
Rafer Alston	64	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.04	-6	-3	-3	17.2	16.3	0.93	17.5	15.7	1.73
Luther Head	71	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	-3	-3	17.0	17.1	-0.08	17.2	16.6	0.60
David Wesley	32	34	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-6	3	18.2	16.2	2.00	16.8	17.3	-0.46
Stromile Swift	24	23	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	2	-13	17.6	16.8	0.80	16.7	17.2	-0.45
Yao Ming	64	62	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.05	-15	6	-21	16.3	19.2	-2.94	17.3	16.6	0.69
Keith Bogans	78	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	1	-11	16.6	22.3	-5.73	16.7	21.3	-4.59

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	69	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-3	15	16.7	18.6	-1.84	16.6	19.1	-2.58
Bonzi Wells	66	65	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-3	15	16.6	18.6	-1.94	16.7	18.2	-1.55
Mike Bibby	79	78	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	0	9	17.1	16.2	0.97	17.1	15.3	1.81
Brad Miller	73	73	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	3	3	17.5	14.4	3.09	16.9	17.5	-0.51
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	37	36	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	-2	13	18.6	15.9	2.79	18.9	15.6	3.24
Kenny Thomas	57	56	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.10	5	4	1	15.5	20.2	-4.69	16.5	18.0	-1.54
Francisco Garcia	19	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	12	-15	18.6	16.6	1.94	18.2	16.7	1.55
Kevin Martin	25	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.14	-7	16	-23	17.7	16.8	0.92	16.5	17.2	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.89,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.64,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 91, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.86,0.84,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.63,0.71,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.94,0.99,1	93.1%
MIA 88, NYK 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.82,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.95,0.98,1,1	93.0%
BKN 84, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.8,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.85,0.92,1	92.8%