NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	139		Excitement	9.4 [49]		MVP	Devin Vassell (SAS): +67.7%
Denver Nuggets	136		Comeback	11.2 [13]		LVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAS): -39.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0.68	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.59,0.68	0.34	0.39	0.05	17	92%	0.68	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Julian Champagnie	0.21	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.18	0.05	0.02	15	62%	0.21	0	0.00	10	100%	0.06
Keldon Johnson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.09	0.12	0.01	7	78%	0.24	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Kelly Olynyk	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	87%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Lindy Waters III	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Sochan	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Carter Bryant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dylan Harper	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.01	7	61%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	43%	-0.01	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.39	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.3,-0.39,-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.01	19	37%	-0.24	3	-0.15	3	67%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cameron Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.15,0.09,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.18	0.05	-0.00	16	82%	0.40	3	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.01	10	60%	0.21	2	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.25	-0.12	0.11	20	79%	0.12	2	-0.10	7	86%	-0.06
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Nikola Joki?	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.08	0.02	10	75%	0.18	4	-0.20	8	75%	-0.01
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.06	0.01	11	58%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	8	17%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.4	29.5	0.0	28.8	0.0	40.4	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +5.8%

SAS +23.4%

DEN -21.1%

SAS +41.4%

SAS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	14.4	14.1	133.7	136.0	113.7
season	14.0	14.4		117.1	123.3
opponent	14.0	14.3		114.1	112.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	12.9	14.9	13.5	13.7	13.8
DEN	14.7	13.3	16.5	13.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keldon Johnson	93	90	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.37	18	-15	33	13.6	15.1	-1.49	15.0	9.0	6.04
De'Aaron Fox	104	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	0	3	13.8	0.0	13.76	14.4	0.0	14.44
Harrison Barnes	95	92	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.53	-9	12	-21	13.8	13.4	0.35	14.5	14.2	0.21
Julian Champagnie	95	92	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.37	-4	7	-11	13.9	12.4	1.44	14.4	14.6	-0.20
Kelly Olynyk	37	37	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	-5	13	14.4	13.4	0.96	16.6	13.2	3.38
Carter Bryant	27	27	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	-5	13	14.4	13.5	0.82	16.7	13.6	3.10
Luke Kornet	86	83	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.32	-6	9	-15	14.0	12.7	1.32	14.3	15.1	-0.75
Dylan Harper	66	64	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	1	1	13.4	14.4	-1.08	16.4	11.0	5.38
Devin Vassell	75	73	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.53	-16	19	-35	13.5	14.5	-1.00	14.1	15.4	-1.38
Jeremy Sochan	68	66	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.10	-7	10	-17	13.8	13.6	0.18	15.9	11.6	4.23
Lindy Waters III	47	45	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.06	-11	14	-25	13.7	13.8	-0.03	14.1	14.7	-0.68

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valan?i?nas	23	23	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-6	9	17.5	13.5	4.00	14.0	13.7	0.36
Peyton Watson	91	94	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.43	12	-15	27	14.4	14.9	-0.49	13.9	12.6	1.28
Spencer Jones	81	81	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.30	7	-10	17	14.6	13.6	1.06	14.4	11.4	2.98
Bruce Brown	70	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.16	-14	11	-25	16.0	10.8	5.25	13.5	14.3	-0.80
Jamal Murray	93	97	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.49	6	-9	15	14.5	13.9	0.63	13.8	12.7	1.12
Cameron Johnson	96	100	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.49	4	-7	11	14.4	15.2	-0.84	13.8	13.0	0.79
Zeke Nnaji	64	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	10	-23	16.3	11.2	5.11	13.3	14.5	-1.25
Nikola Joki?	100	104	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.4	0.0	14.44	13.8	0.0	13.76
Tim Hardaway Jr.	84	85	-0.94	0.44	-1.37	-0.20	-25	22	-47	15.3	9.8	5.51	14.0	12.8	1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.53,0.54,0.7,0.75,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.33,0.32,0.43,0.31,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 120, IND 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.72,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.85,0.82,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.22,0.02,0	91.1%
LAL 112, SEA 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.26,0	91.1%
MIL 97, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.89,0.88,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.54,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.1,0	90.6%