NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	109		Excitement	10.3 [22]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +78.7%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	12.2 [35]		LVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAS): -46.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.79	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.79	0.38	0.44	0.04	26	82%	0.89	3	-0.10	8	100%	0.18
Brandin Podziemski	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.04	0.13	-0.01	8	56%	0.18	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Payton II	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.04	0.12	-0.01	7	43%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Richard	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	71%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.08	0.00	14	58%	0.02	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
Buddy Hield	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.16,-0.16	-0.17	0.00	-0.00	12	25%	-0.04	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Moses Moody	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	8	25%	-0.03	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Wembanyama	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.27,0.18	0.18	0.04	0.10	-0.04	21	58%	0.25	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.06
Julian Champagnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	0.00	9	70%	0.24	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Sochan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	3	83%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.01	6	65%	0.12	4	-0.10	8	62%	-0.05
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Devin Vassell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Keldon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.16,-0.15,-0.47	-0.47	0.01	-0.47	0.00	22	55%	-0.26	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	0.0	31.0	0.0	29.0	0.0	37.0	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.6	29.4	2.3	32.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +21.5%

GSW +39.2%

SAS -30.8%

GSW +17.4%

GSW +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	13.6	14.1	109.0	110.2	113.7
season	14.7	14.0		112.4	117.1
opponent	14.3	13.6		112.5	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	16.8	16.2	14.0	15.5
SAS	13.1	12.5	13.8	14.8	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	93	92	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.42	8	-7	15	15.0	21.1	-6.10	13.6	13.7	-0.11
Jimmy Butler III	91	89	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.47	2	-1	3	15.5	15.1	0.39	13.6	13.2	0.37
Draymond Green	100	98	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.5	0.0	15.47	13.6	0.0	13.56
Brandin Podziemski	93	90	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	-3	7	15.4	17.0	-1.65	13.8	11.1	2.65
Moses Moody	90	87	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.17	4	-3	7	15.7	13.8	1.86	13.6	13.0	0.63
Gary Payton II	89	86	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	2	-3	15.6	14.5	1.04	13.6	13.6	-0.03
Buddy Hield	68	66	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	1	-1	15.8	14.7	1.15	13.2	14.4	-1.21
Al Horford	86	83	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.14	1	0	1	16.1	11.6	4.53	13.6	13.3	0.35
Quinten Post	16	15	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.08	-3	4	-7	18.7	14.9	3.83	10.9	14.0	-3.18
Will Richard	50	48	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.16	-3	4	-7	15.5	15.4	0.06	13.2	13.9	-0.69

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Sochan	46	47	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.17	1	-2	3	13.2	13.8	-0.61	16.1	14.9	1.12
Keldon Johnson	73	75	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-3	5	13.1	14.8	-1.72	16.0	14.0	2.01
Julian Champagnie	84	87	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.25	3	-4	7	13.6	13.5	0.07	15.4	16.2	-0.87
Harrison Barnes	67	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	1	-3	13.4	13.9	-0.50	15.2	16.1	-0.95
Luke Kornet	88	91	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	10	-21	13.7	12.0	1.74	15.1	19.1	-4.00
De'Aaron Fox	98	100	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	13.6	0.0	13.56	15.5	0.0	15.47
Victor Wembanyama	98	100	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	13.6	0.0	13.56	15.5	0.0	15.47
Devin Vassell	90	92	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.46	-7	6	-13	13.7	11.9	1.84	15.5	15.4	0.10
Stephon Castle	84	86	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.44	-12	11	-23	13.7	12.6	1.07	14.9	19.2	-4.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.67,0.79,0.74,0.86,0.81,0.9,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, CHH 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.83,0.62,0.71,0.55,0.74,0	92.1%
BOS 90, POR 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.67,0.73,0	91.2%
CHI 118, NYK 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.62,0.74,0.68,0.53,0.63,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.64,0.57,0.84,0	91.0%