NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	108		Excitement	5.9 [573]		MVP	Simone Fontecchio (MIA): +15.9%
Miami Heat	126		Comeback	1.0 [887]		LVP	Tre Mann (CHA): -20.2%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moussa Diabat�	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	59%	0.08	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00
Kon Knueppel	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.01	0.06	23	57%	0.07	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.02
Liam McNeeley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.05	6	57%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
KJ Simpson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	4	60%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Kalkbrenner	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.05	0.01	7	71%	0.08	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Sion James	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	8	59%	0.02	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Miles Bridges	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.04	-0.02	16	37%	-0.06	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Tre Mann	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	24	38%	-0.10	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	6	69%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.17	0.02	0.06	11	76%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Norman Powell	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.02	20	58%	0.12	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Nikola Jovi?	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.02	6	71%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	64%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.01	15	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.11	-0.02	0.13	16	69%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	13	27%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.3	27.4	14.2	32.9	1.7	32.1	139.1
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +62.8%

CHA -11.4%

CHA -32.0%

MIA +30.9%

CHA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	12.6	14.2	101.9	118.9	113.7
season	15.0	12.9		117.3	114.3
opponent	14.5	14.1		112.0	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	11.9	15.0	17.5	14.4	14.5
MIA	12.0	11.7	13.1	13.8	12.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Kalkbrenner	62	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-15	12	14.5	14.6	-0.05	12.8	12.4	0.42
Sion James	86	84	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-16	14	15.2	11.5	3.74	13.3	10.0	3.27
Tre Mann	92	91	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-14	10	15.0	11.4	3.58	12.9	10.5	2.40
Kon Knueppel	95	95	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	-12	6	14.9	11.5	3.44	12.8	10.7	2.08
Moussa Diabat�	106	106	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	0	-18	14.5	0.0	14.54	12.6	0.0	12.59
Miles Bridges	105	104	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.05	-20	2	-22	14.4	24.0	-9.55	12.6	11.5	1.12
Liam McNeeley	101	100	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.01	-18	0	-18	14.4	17.4	-3.00	12.9	8.0	4.87
KJ Simpson	71	71	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	0.29	-34	16	-50	13.5	16.6	-3.08	13.0	11.8	1.23
Pat Connaughton	63	62	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	0.17	-33	15	-48	15.2	13.6	1.57	12.1	13.2	-1.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dru Smith	70	72	0.83	-0.33	1.16	-0.14	33	-15	48	12.3	13.1	-0.82	15.1	13.3	1.79
Simone Fontecchio	81	82	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.16	19	-1	20	12.5	12.8	-0.32	14.6	14.4	0.16
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	103	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	4	10	12.7	7.3	5.41	14.6	11.3	3.30
Andrew Wiggins	102	102	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.07	18	0	18	12.6	12.0	0.62	14.0	27.2	-13.21
Norman Powell	84	86	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.12	11	7	4	13.1	10.8	2.24	14.2	16.0	-1.86
Davion Mitchell	90	90	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.11	7	11	-4	12.9	11.1	1.73	14.4	15.3	-0.91
Pelle Larsson	95	95	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.12	6	12	-6	12.8	10.6	2.18	14.2	17.4	-3.15
Nikola Jovi?	80	81	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.07	6	12	-6	12.2	13.8	-1.66	14.6	14.4	0.18
Kel'el Ware	76	77	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	20	-22	13.1	11.3	1.76	14.3	15.1	-0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.66,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.9,0.84,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 71, NYK 78	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.76,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	92.9%
NYK 88, IND 102	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.2%
NJN 101, CHI 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.77,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.87,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.1%