NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	130		Excitement	9.3 [49]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +56.2%
Sacramento Kings	129		Comeback	30.9 [12]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAC): -10.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.56	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.56	0.06	0.49	-0.01	26	52%	0.59	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.01,0.37	-0.06	0.40	-0.03	19	48%	0.49	5	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.27,0.27	0.14	0.13	-0.00	14	71%	0.30	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Hunter Tyson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.01	2	117%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Russell Westbrook	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	13	60%	0.09	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	65%	0.08	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Julian Strawther	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.04	0.04	12	54%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.06	0.01	8	47%	-0.03	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.18,0.54	0.54	0.03	0.48	-0.03	24	54%	0.58	3	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.06	0.03	9	89%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.07	0.03	7	63%	0.12	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Malik Monk	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	19	61%	0.20	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	-0.04	-0.01	20	65%	0.26	2	-0.17	3	100%	0.02
Alex Len	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Colby Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.10	-0.01	18	44%	-0.06	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.7	35.0	14.6	25.6	1.7	31.9	137.0
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.3	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +44.8%

SAC -10.3%

DEN +12.5%

SAC -3.8%

DEN +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	14.0	12.3	14.3	118.2	118.3	111.9
season	13.6	13.8		115.4	114.2
opponent	14.9	14.5		112.2	113.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.6	14.4	14.7	14.3	14.0
SAC	14.6	8.9	11.9	14.5	12.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	86	84	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.62	10	-9	19	14.1	13.8	0.28	12.7	10.7	2.03
Aaron Gordon	72	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.36	6	-5	11	13.6	14.7	-1.11	12.2	12.5	-0.37
Nikola Jokic	88	88	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	-3	7	13.6	15.8	-2.20	12.2	12.6	-0.41
Russell Westbrook	80	80	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	-2	5	13.8	14.5	-0.67	12.3	12.2	0.11
Peyton Watson	38	38	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.46	-5	6	-11	14.7	13.6	1.11	12.5	12.2	0.37
Michael Porter Jr.	73	71	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.08	8	-7	15	13.6	14.9	-1.33	12.2	12.4	-0.17
DeAndre Jordan	22	21	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	4	-7	15.8	13.6	2.20	12.6	12.2	0.41
Hunter Tyson	37	38	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.04	-7	8	-15	14.9	13.6	1.33	12.4	12.2	0.17
Julian Strawther	54	54	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.02	-11	12	-23	14.2	13.8	0.35	11.5	13.0	-1.52

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Colby Jones	42	41	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.12	6	-7	13	12.3	12.3	-0.04	14.4	13.8	0.69
Doug McDermott	60	62	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.05	6	-7	13	12.1	12.5	-0.34	14.6	13.3	1.31
Alex Len	4	5	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-2	3	14.2	12.2	2.04	17.0	13.9	3.13
Jae Crowder	11	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	6	-13	15.8	11.9	3.93	11.5	14.3	-2.84
Isaac Jones	16	14	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	1	-3	11.4	12.4	-1.07	14.6	13.9	0.73
Keon Ellis	77	76	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.51	9	-10	19	11.5	14.2	-2.69	13.7	14.8	-1.09
Domantas Sabonis	94	96	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.42	1	-2	3	12.2	12.9	-0.68	13.8	15.4	-1.54
DeMar DeRozan	77	79	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.53	0	-1	1	12.0	12.9	-0.88	14.1	13.9	0.15
Malik Monk	76	78	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.47	-6	5	-11	12.7	11.2	1.54	13.7	14.8	-1.09
De'Aaron Fox	88	88	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.50	-13	12	-25	12.6	10.8	1.89	14.2	13.2	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.19,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.52,0.65,0.76,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.64,0.65,0.9,0.97,0.96,0.87,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 99, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.87,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.85,0	87.9%
POR 81, PHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.85,0.83,0.93,0.79,0.9,0.47,0	86.5%
ATL 121, TOR 120	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.86,0.72,0.94,0.99,0	86.1%