NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	90		Excitement	8.6 [220]		MVP	Jalen Green (HOU): +27.2%
Houston Rockets	91		Comeback	54.6 [36]		LVP	Fred VanVleet (HOU): -27.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Buddy Hield	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.08	0.00	12	62%	0.16	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Lindy Waters III	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.15	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	17	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Kevon Looney	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Spencer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Kuminga	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	20	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.05
Kyle Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.04	9	44%	0.05	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	9	44%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton II	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16	-0.03	-0.12	0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,0.27	0.27	-0.14	0.40	-0.02	15	37%	0.38	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.16
Alperen Sengun	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.10	0.02	18	60%	0.25	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.02
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	7	64%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amen Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.00	7	71%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	11	68%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	53%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.14	-0.13	-0.00	13	31%	-0.07	4	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.8	27.3	16.4	24.2	3.5	37.9	137.5
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +1.5%

HOU +54.5%

GSW -17.8%

HOU +13.8%

GSW -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	15.6	14.4	95.7	97.8	113.1
season	14.5	14.8		112.9	113.9
opponent	14.3	14.5		109.7	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.6	13.1	16.7	18.3	15.2
HOU	16.4	14.1	16.8	15.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandin Podziemski	56	56	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.08	4	-5	9	16.0	14.0	2.01	16.6	14.1	2.54
Buddy Hield	66	66	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.10	9	-10	19	15.2	15.3	-0.09	16.9	12.3	4.68
Trayce Jackson-Davis	30	30	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.08	3	-4	7	16.1	14.8	1.24	14.4	16.1	-1.74
Lindy Waters III	45	46	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.17	-3	2	-5	16.2	14.3	1.87	14.7	16.5	-1.79
Pat Spencer	7	6	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-2	3	12.9	15.4	-2.56	16.5	15.5	0.98
Kyle Anderson	8	8	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	4	-9	14.4	15.3	-0.93	14.0	15.7	-1.73
Jonathan Kuminga	69	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.52	2	-3	5	15.1	15.6	-0.51	16.9	12.4	4.52
Stephen Curry	66	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.65	4	-5	9	15.0	15.6	-0.60	15.4	16.0	-0.53
Kevon Looney	23	23	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	3	-7	15.8	15.0	0.74	14.4	16.0	-1.52
Draymond Green	60	60	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.61	-2	1	-3	14.8	16.0	-1.26	15.1	16.4	-1.21
Gary Payton II	40	37	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.38	-14	13	-27	13.9	16.2	-2.35	13.2	17.1	-3.88

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Green	62	64	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.65	3	-2	5	15.1	16.6	-1.55	14.2	17.5	-3.29
Jabari Smith Jr.	71	72	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.56	-1	2	-3	16.4	13.0	3.44	15.3	15.0	0.23
Dillon Brooks	71	72	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.56	-1	2	-3	16.4	13.0	3.44	15.3	15.0	0.23
Fred VanVleet	67	68	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.58	-5	6	-11	16.6	12.8	3.80	14.9	16.2	-1.29
Tari Eason	51	49	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	-3	7	14.6	16.7	-2.07	16.0	14.3	1.71
Alperen Sengun	60	64	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.31	-4	5	-9	15.5	15.6	-0.09	14.3	17.1	-2.76
Amen Thompson	59	57	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.08	6	-5	11	14.5	17.4	-2.89	16.6	13.1	3.44
Aaron Holiday	25	25	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.09	3	-2	5	13.2	16.4	-3.20	15.6	15.1	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 90, SEA 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.14,0.15,1	90.7%
BOS 87, DAL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.75,0.77,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.27,0.17,0.16,0.33,0.45,0.29,0.16,0.42,1	89.7%
BOS 80, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.17,1	89.7%