NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	80		Excitement	7.4 [323]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (SAS): +19.8%
San Antonio Spurs	81		Comeback	20.7 [101]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -39.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Bremer	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	7	71%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kedrick Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Shammond Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	1	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Antoine Walker	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	0.01	20	37%	-0.12	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.40	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.14,-0.11,-0.16,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.14,-0.4	-0.15	-0.25	-0.01	24	45%	-0.23	6	-0.17	7	86%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,0.2	0.20	-0.02	0.23	0.01	15	53%	0.39	3	-0.19	4	75%	-0.00
Steven Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	9	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	56%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.06
David Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	53%	0.02	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	14	39%	-0.09	3	-0.07	3	67%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	16	47%	-0.11	2	-0.08	13	54%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.5	30.4	16.7	28.3	2.4	35.2	137.8
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.7%

SAS +5.1%

BOS -2.6%

BOS -7.6%

SAS +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAS	NBA	BOS	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	17.6	15.5	93.0	94.2	101.6
season	15.6	15.7		99.3	102.5
opponent	15.4	15.5		96.9	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.5	15.2	13.1	20.4	15.9
SAS	17.2	20.0	16.9	16.6	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Delk	36	33	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.02	8	-9	17	14.3	17.0	-2.63	20.0	16.2	3.80
Tony Battie	31	31	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.04	4	-5	9	15.2	16.2	-1.04	19.0	16.8	2.20
Vin Baker	40	39	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.17	-2	1	-3	14.7	16.8	-2.08	18.1	17.3	0.82
Shammond Williams	10	10	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.06	2	-3	5	18.6	15.5	3.10	17.4	17.7	-0.26
Kedrick Brown	37	37	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.23	5	-6	11	17.0	15.0	2.00	17.0	18.1	-1.15
Eric Williams	30	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.27	-2	1	-3	15.0	16.3	-1.37	19.4	16.7	2.70
Antoine Walker	82	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.49	2	-3	5	15.8	17.0	-1.20	17.3	26.7	-9.37
J.R. Bremer	54	55	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.52	-3	2	-5	15.9	15.8	0.13	17.0	18.8	-1.79
Paul Pierce	74	75	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.41	-8	7	-15	16.4	12.7	3.61	17.1	21.0	-3.87
Walter McCarty	36	36	-0.94	0.44	-1.38	-0.62	-11	10	-21	17.0	15.0	2.01	15.8	18.9	-3.13

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Robinson	49	49	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.68	-1	2	-3	18.2	16.8	1.43	16.7	14.7	2.03
Stephen Jackson	69	67	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.64	-1	2	-3	16.6	21.7	-5.08	15.3	17.9	-2.68
Tim Duncan	70	72	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-6	13	17.4	18.7	-1.38	15.6	17.1	-1.53
Steve Kerr	15	18	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.39	5	-4	9	20.7	17.0	3.76	13.7	16.4	-2.77
Tony Parker	71	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	2	-3	17.0	20.7	-3.76	16.3	13.9	2.39
Bruce Bowen	69	67	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	-7	15	18.0	16.0	2.03	16.6	13.4	3.20
Steven Smith	8	10	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	-4	9	21.0	17.3	3.72	17.0	15.7	1.29
Malik Rose	43	43	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.08	-1	2	-3	16.8	18.4	-1.58	14.9	16.8	-1.91
Danny Ferry	10	8	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.06	-3	4	-7	19.8	17.3	2.46	17.9	15.7	2.22
Manu Ginobili	26	27	-0.53	1.03	-1.57	-0.15	-13	14	-27	18.2	17.4	0.81	15.4	16.1	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.17,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 89, LAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.08,1	92.3%
DEN 123, HOU 125	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.16,1	91.1%
NOH 85, LAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.06,0.15,1	90.4%