NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Excitement	5.6 [655]		MVP	Kevin Porter Jr. (MIL): +35.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	110		Comeback	525.3 [2]		LVP	Julius Randle (MIN): -17.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donte DiVincenzo	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.15	-0.01	0.02	15	77%	0.20	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Naz Reid	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	-0.06	-0.01	12	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.00	-0.05	6	42%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	5	33%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Clark	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden McDaniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.01	12	52%	0.04	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	27	44%	-0.07	2	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Julius Randle	-0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	5	-0.24	2	100%	0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.11	0.21	-0.04	9	78%	0.38	3	-0.02	9	100%	0.07
AJ Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	6	75%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.03	15	56%	0.07	0	0.00	11	36%	-0.07
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	15	56%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	8	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	9	39%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.3	27.3	14.8	26.1	2.5	40.6	136.8
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +25.9%

MIL +0.6%

MIN -2.5%

MIL +27.1%

MIN -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIL	NBA	MIN	MIL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.7	14.4	109.6	117.0	113.1
season	14.7	14.4		115.4	114.2
opponent	14.3	14.6		111.9	110.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.7	14.7	16.7	16.7	15.9
MIL	15.6	15.3	17.6	11.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donte DiVincenzo	56	56	0.20	-0.70	0.91	-0.00	7	-14	21	14.7	17.8	-3.05	14.4	15.1	-0.65
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	30	31	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.10	0	-7	7	16.7	15.6	1.06	14.1	15.0	-0.94
Jaylen Clark	7	8	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-8	9	16.4	15.9	0.52	13.0	14.8	-1.85
Naz Reid	53	54	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.32	8	-15	23	15.4	16.7	-1.35	14.2	15.3	-1.15
Rudy Gobert	68	65	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.01	-6	-1	-5	16.1	15.6	0.46	15.3	13.3	2.00
Jaden McDaniels	58	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-4	1	16.3	15.4	0.90	15.6	13.4	2.22
Anthony Edwards	76	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.41	-4	-3	-1	16.0	15.8	0.21	14.8	14.2	0.62
Julius Randle	67	69	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.26	-16	9	-25	16.3	15.1	1.17	14.5	15.2	-0.75
Mike Conley	55	57	-0.95	0.45	-1.41	-0.31	-22	15	-37	16.3	15.4	0.92	14.5	15.0	-0.55

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
AJ Green	48	49	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.22	22	-15	37	12.2	17.2	-4.99	16.6	15.2	1.35
Giannis Antetokounmpo	74	73	0.84	-0.34	1.19	0.08	26	-19	45	14.3	16.1	-1.85	16.3	14.6	1.71
Kevin Porter Jr.	52	53	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.30	18	-11	29	12.6	17.3	-4.78	16.1	15.7	0.38
Gary Trent Jr.	52	52	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.28	18	-11	29	12.8	17.1	-4.30	16.2	15.6	0.55
Bobby Portis	58	57	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.35	10	-3	13	13.5	16.6	-3.07	16.1	15.7	0.40
Ryan Rollins	42	41	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.00	-11	18	-29	17.3	12.6	4.78	15.7	16.1	-0.38
Brook Lopez	53	54	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.17	-18	25	-43	16.4	12.5	3.91	15.2	16.9	-1.66
Taurean Prince	46	45	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	0.08	-15	22	-37	17.2	12.2	4.99	15.2	16.6	-1.35
Kyle Kuzma	45	46	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.01	-15	22	-37	17.1	12.5	4.56	15.7	16.2	-0.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.15,0.39,0.32,0.54,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 108, SAS 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.14,0.24,0.4,0.55,0.55,0.86,0.84,1	92.8%
BKN 114, LAC 125	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.34,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.48,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.26,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.19,0.46,0.85,0.98,1	91.2%
PHX 94, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.53,0.72,0.91,0.92,1	91.0%