NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	127		Excitement	7.3 [415]		MVP	Zach LaVine (SAC): +52.4%
Detroit Pistons	117		Comeback	7.3 [82]		LVP	Trey Lyles (SAC): -10.7%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach LaVine	0.52	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.19,0.29,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52	0.31	0.30	0.09	28	72%	0.55	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.07	0.00	26	60%	0.25	2	-0.03	10	80%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.02	5	62%	0.09	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.04
Domantas Sabonis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.02	0.04	11	70%	0.11	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Isaac Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Ellis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Malik Monk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	8	39%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.19,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.13	0.05	21	66%	0.36	4	-0.13	11	73%	-0.03
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	13	58%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	5	73%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	71%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	15	44%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	4	42%	-0.04	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.06
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.06	-0.07	0.05	15	58%	-0.01	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	2.4	30.6	14.8	33.2	2.5	32.2	144.9
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +25.0%

SAC +8.0%

SAC +14.3%

SAC +3.5%

DET -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DET	NBA	SAC	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	14.2	14.4	135.1	123.2	113.1
season	14.3	14.1		115.1	113.7
opponent	14.5	14.6		111.9	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.9	16.7	16.2	19.1	16.3
DET	13.8	14.6	12.6	16.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Ellis	73	75	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.23	9	1	8	16.6	15.3	1.28	14.2	14.0	0.20
Devin Carter	39	42	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.01	15	-5	20	15.2	17.2	-2.01	15.3	13.2	2.06
DeMar DeRozan	71	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.00	15	-5	20	16.9	14.5	2.45	14.0	14.7	-0.74
Zach LaVine	88	87	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.26	6	4	2	16.9	7.7	9.25	13.9	17.1	-3.24
Domantas Sabonis	69	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	4	2	17.2	13.9	3.34	13.9	14.8	-0.93
Trey Lyles	75	76	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.22	3	7	-4	16.5	15.7	0.74	14.2	14.1	0.13
Jonas Valanciunas	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	6	-2	13.9	17.2	-3.34	14.8	13.9	0.93
Malik Monk	13	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	12	-14	14.2	16.7	-2.44	14.7	14.1	0.62
Isaac Jones	10	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	13	-16	15.1	16.5	-1.38	12.1	14.3	-2.22
Doug McDermott	7	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	13	-16	10.4	16.8	-6.38	13.2	14.2	-0.99

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ausar Thompson	58	60	0.18	-0.69	0.87	-0.20	13	-23	36	13.6	15.1	-1.56	16.8	15.4	1.39
Marcus Sasser	20	21	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.21	8	-18	26	15.0	13.9	1.07	15.5	16.6	-1.10
Ronald Holland II	27	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.27	8	-18	26	15.6	13.6	2.06	18.0	15.6	2.43
Jalen Duren	43	44	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-4	-2	12.9	15.2	-2.29	15.7	16.8	-1.09
Isaiah Stewart	52	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-6	2	15.2	12.9	2.29	16.8	15.7	1.09
Cade Cunningham	66	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-1	-8	13.9	14.8	-0.91	16.8	15.4	1.41
Simone Fontecchio	17	17	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	4	-18	14.9	14.0	0.88	11.2	17.5	-6.22
Dennis Schroder	64	61	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.07	-19	9	-28	13.9	14.7	-0.82	16.6	15.9	0.65
Malik Beasley	56	56	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	0	-10	15.1	12.8	2.36	16.4	16.2	0.29
Tim Hardaway Jr.	72	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.04	-17	7	-24	13.4	16.4	-3.00	16.0	17.2	-1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.57,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.43,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.04,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 105, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.5,0.43,0.32,0.33,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.14,0.07,0.03,0,0	92.3%
WAS 121, ATL 119	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.22,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.08,0	92.1%
LAL 102, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.31,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0	91.7%