NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	121		Excitement	8.6 [208]		MVP	Larry Nance Jr. (ATL): +19.4%
Atlanta Hawks	119		Comeback	3.7 [129]		LVP	Trae Young (ATL): -37.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Kispert	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.19	0.09	0.10	0.00	15	62%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.06
Carlton Carrington	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.05	-0.00	5	108%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Poole	0.17	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.17	0.13	0.05	0.02	17	72%	0.23	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Bilal Coulibaly	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.03	0.12	-0.01	12	55%	0.21	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.04
Kyle Kuzma	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.10	-0.03	20	54%	0.27	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.02
Kyshawn George	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Bagley III	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	7	47%	0.03	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Alexandre Sarr	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	11	32%	-0.02	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.09	0.00	9	83%	0.23	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Roddy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	4	90%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jalen Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.04	0.02	17	71%	0.26	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.02
Dyson Daniels	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.09	-0.01	9	55%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	6	89%	0.15	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Vit Krejci	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Keaton Wallace	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	10	61%	0.06	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.03
Zaccharie Risacher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	8	21%	-0.09	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Trae Young	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.3,-0.38	-0.38	-0.18	-0.18	0.01	15	36%	-0.20	6	-0.18	9	89%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.0	30.1	14.7	28.1	2.5	42.8	146.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +36.7%

WAS +8.9%

WAS +4.7%

ATL -0.1%

ATL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ATL	NBA	WAS	ATL	NBA
this game	14.6	12.8	14.4	115.2	112.3	113.1
season	14.0	13.2		105.3	113.0
opponent	14.5	14.1		114.4	117.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.1	15.0	13.2	14.9	14.6
ATL	11.0	13.3	14.0	12.8	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Kispert	68	68	0.68	-0.20	0.88	0.15	18	-11	29	14.6	14.6	0.07	13.7	12.0	1.75
Jordan Poole	66	65	0.46	0.02	0.44	0.20	9	-2	11	14.9	14.0	0.89	13.2	13.1	0.04
Bilal Coulibaly	75	74	0.44	0.03	0.41	0.18	9	-2	11	14.6	14.7	-0.16	12.9	14.1	-1.27
Kyle Kuzma	87	89	0.37	0.10	0.27	0.20	6	1	5	14.6	15.0	-0.43	13.4	10.8	2.64
Alexandre Sarr	55	54	0.20	0.28	-0.08	0.38	-6	13	-19	14.4	14.9	-0.55	13.4	12.9	0.48
Kyshawn George	48	48	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.34	-6	8	-14	14.4	14.7	-0.29	12.1	13.3	-1.11
Jonas Valanciunas	46	47	0.09	0.39	-0.30	0.03	2	5	-3	16.2	13.3	2.85	12.4	13.9	-1.50
Marvin Bagley III	9	9	0.02	0.46	-0.44	-0.01	1	6	-5	12.8	14.8	-2.03	10.7	13.4	-2.76
Carlton Carrington	47	48	-0.02	0.49	-0.51	0.07	-3	10	-13	13.6	15.6	-2.04	13.5	12.9	0.60

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaccharie Risacher	57	55	0.24	-0.71	0.95	-0.17	14	-18	32	12.9	12.8	0.09	14.9	14.4	0.58
Vit Krejci	24	22	0.11	-0.58	0.69	0.05	2	-6	8	13.0	12.8	0.18	13.8	14.9	-1.14
Keaton Wallace	5	4	-0.06	-0.41	0.35	-0.00	-2	-2	0	10.4	12.9	-2.54	18.0	14.5	3.46
Clint Capela	55	56	-0.21	-0.26	0.05	-0.33	4	-8	12	11.8	13.9	-2.06	15.1	14.2	0.94
Larry Nance Jr.	50	48	-0.26	-0.21	-0.05	-0.03	-8	4	-12	13.9	11.8	2.06	14.2	15.1	-0.94
Jalen Johnson	86	87	-0.27	-0.21	-0.06	-0.45	6	-10	16	12.1	15.9	-3.82	14.9	13.6	1.30
Garrison Mathews	51	53	-0.36	-0.11	-0.25	-0.45	3	-7	10	13.3	12.4	0.85	14.1	15.3	-1.14
David Roddy	40	38	-0.40	-0.07	-0.33	0.13	-18	14	-32	14.4	11.8	2.63	14.6	14.7	-0.07
Trae Young	77	78	-0.53	0.06	-0.59	-0.27	-9	5	-14	12.5	13.6	-1.12	14.7	14.7	-0.03
Dyson Daniels	80	79	-0.62	0.15	-0.77	-0.27	-12	8	-20	12.8	12.8	0.08	14.7	14.5	0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.22,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 84, POR 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.22,0.17,0.11,0.05,0.08,0	92.0%
WAS 104, ATL 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.07,0.14,0.08,0	91.9%
LAL 96, SAC 93	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.46,0.43,0.56,0.47,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.33,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.01,0	91.9%