NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	1.9 [457]		MVP	Brook Lopez (MIL): +16.0%
Golden State Warriors	104		Comeback	3.1 [348]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -11.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	10	80%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.01	9	48%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.08
Kyle Kuzma	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	-0.00	16	63%	0.15	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Ryan Rollins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taurean Prince	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	4	75%	0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	-0.06	18	40%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	16	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	15	67%	-0.02
AJ Green	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Porter Jr.	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandin Podziemski	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.07	0.02	10	77%	0.20	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.01	-0.00	7	100%	0.18	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jimmy Butler III	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.02	13	65%	0.27	5	-0.14	11	100%	0.08
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	7	57%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	10	70%	0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gui Santos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	1	150%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Kuminga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.09	10	38%	0.00	2	0.02	6	100%	0.05
Pat Spencer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Moses Moody	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	9	35%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	6	21%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	35.5	2.4	27.4	14.7	37.0	2.6	32.7	152.2
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +36.4%

MIL -2.0%

GSW +25.1%

MIL -14.8%

GSW +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	15.7	14.4	94.9	107.2	113.0
season	14.4	14.5		114.2	112.9
opponent	14.5	14.3		110.5	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.4	15.2	13.8	14.0	13.8
GSW	15.3	14.2	15.0	18.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taurean Prince	64	64	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.10	6	-17	23	13.9	13.7	0.23	16.7	13.9	2.79
Ryan Rollins	11	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-10	9	13.6	13.9	-0.21	16.1	15.7	0.42
Kyle Kuzma	74	76	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	-4	-3	14.3	12.4	1.92	15.4	17.0	-1.57
AJ Green	32	31	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	-5	-1	12.3	14.5	-2.20	14.0	16.5	-2.53
Brook Lopez	65	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-5	-1	14.7	12.1	2.62	15.9	15.3	0.59
Giannis Antetokounmpo	81	79	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-4	-3	13.6	15.1	-1.56	15.6	16.3	-0.68
Damian Lillard	76	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.11	-8	-3	-5	14.2	12.7	1.48	16.1	14.4	1.76
Kevin Porter Jr.	33	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	-1	-9	13.0	14.2	-1.20	14.5	16.3	-1.82
Gary Trent Jr.	54	52	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.18	-16	5	-21	13.4	14.4	-1.02	16.1	15.2	0.89

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler III	75	76	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.10	15	-4	19	15.4	16.7	-1.24	14.3	12.2	2.06
Draymond Green	73	75	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-3	17	15.7	15.9	-0.20	13.9	13.4	0.51
Buddy Hield	47	49	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.16	11	0	11	15.9	15.6	0.33	13.1	14.6	-1.45
Quinten Post	46	44	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.13	9	2	7	16.1	15.4	0.74	15.2	12.7	2.54
Gary Payton II	35	37	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	4	3	15.0	16.1	-1.17	13.4	14.1	-0.72
Brandin Podziemski	58	57	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	8	-5	16.6	14.5	2.06	14.1	13.4	0.67
Pat Spencer	13	14	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.04	7	4	3	14.2	16.0	-1.81	13.8	13.8	-0.05
Trayce Jackson-Davis	9	10	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.07	7	4	3	15.0	15.8	-0.80	13.6	13.9	-0.25
Moses Moody	50	49	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	11	-11	15.6	15.9	-0.33	14.6	13.1	1.45
Kevon Looney	15	15	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	11	-11	12.7	16.3	-3.53	10.7	14.4	-3.65
Jonathan Kuminga	48	48	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.23	-11	22	-33	16.2	15.2	1.00	12.8	14.8	-1.99
Gui Santos	16	16	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	18	-25	17.7	15.3	2.43	13.4	13.9	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.71,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.28,0.58,0.7,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.93,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 108, DEN 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.78,0.91,0.87,0.69,0.78,0.96,0.92,1	92.4%
MIA 85, MIL 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.72,0.68,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	91.1%
LAC 113, PHI 122	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.65,0.52,0.55,0.37,0.4,0.67,0.61,0.78,0.88,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.67,0.66,0.86,0.79,0.94,1,1	91.0%