NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	1.4 [825]		MVP	Larry Sanders (MIL): +17.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	3.9 [196]		LVP	Marquis Daniels (MIL): -12.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.02	20	58%	0.17	6	-0.12	5	60%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	19	53%	0.05	3	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrel Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	75%	0.00	1	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	5	36%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Josh Harrellson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	14	40%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.01	11	73%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.09	0.05	12	62%	0.14	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.01	15	58%	0.15	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.15	-0.03	0.06	16	64%	0.07	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	18	39%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	9	11%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.7	25.5	15.7	24.4	2.3	34.5	130.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +22.5%

MIL +6.9%

MIL +1.1%

MIL +19.8%

MIA -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.8	15.4	90.4	109.5	104.1
season	15.7	14.7		110.2	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.9		103.9	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	16.0	12.9	17.8	15.6
MIL	14.1	14.7	14.3	16.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	57	57	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.29	-1	-18	17	15.0	16.6	-1.65	15.2	14.3	0.86
Mario Chalmers	55	56	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.28	-7	-12	5	15.3	16.1	-0.73	15.3	14.2	1.15
Joel Anthony	14	14	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.11	5	-24	29	15.0	15.8	-0.76	16.1	14.6	1.54
James Jones	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-21	23	15.2	15.7	-0.47	17.5	14.7	2.85
Terrel Harris	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-21	23	15.2	15.7	-0.47	17.5	14.7	2.85
LeBron James	71	72	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.20	-8	-11	3	15.4	16.3	-0.93	15.3	13.2	2.13
Mike Miller	13	14	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	-9	-1	15.8	15.6	0.14	11.5	15.4	-3.91
Dwyane Wade	68	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	-6	-7	15.8	15.3	0.42	15.3	13.8	1.48
Josh Harrellson	36	37	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	-7	-5	15.7	15.6	0.12	13.8	15.5	-1.76
Chris Bosh	67	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.15	-23	4	-27	16.0	14.8	1.17	14.6	15.4	-0.80
Norris Cole	39	39	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	-7	-5	16.1	15.3	0.73	14.2	15.3	-1.15
Ray Allen	40	40	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.15	-18	-1	-17	16.4	15.1	1.39	14.0	15.5	-1.48

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Larry Sanders	63	61	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.02	26	-7	33	14.8	14.9	-0.11	16.8	13.5	3.24
Mike Dunleavy	50	49	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.02	25	-6	31	15.0	14.7	0.27	16.3	14.9	1.46
Beno Udrih	24	26	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.17	16	3	13	12.2	15.7	-3.45	16.9	15.2	1.71
Luc Mbah a Moute	63	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.08	19	0	19	15.1	14.3	0.78	16.4	14.1	2.28
Brandon Jennings	83	82	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.09	15	4	11	15.1	13.2	1.91	15.7	15.4	0.27
Marquis Daniels	52	51	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	17	-15	14.3	15.5	-1.24	14.8	16.6	-1.80
Monta Ellis	71	70	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.20	7	12	-5	15.0	14.4	0.56	15.2	16.9	-1.70
Tobias Harris	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	19	-19	17.5	14.7	2.85	15.2	15.7	-0.47
John Henson	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	19	-19	17.5	14.7	2.85	15.2	15.7	-0.47
Ersan Ilyasova	29	28	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.05	-5	24	-29	15.3	14.6	0.64	14.4	16.2	-1.79
Ekpe Udoh	28	29	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.04	-10	29	-39	14.7	14.9	-0.22	13.1	16.8	-3.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.72,0.68,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 90, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.64,0.77,0.77,0.88,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.72,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.87,1,1,1,1,1	92.7%
IND 81, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	92.2%
SEA 86, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	91.9%