NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	6.0 [587]		MVP	Gary Payton II (GSW): +17.2%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	1.2 [167]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (DEN): -23.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gordon	0.15	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.02	23	73%	0.30	7	-0.15	6	100%	0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	18	52%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.00	2	117%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hunter Tyson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlatko Cancar	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.03	4	62%	0.06	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.03	8	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.05
Jalen Pickett	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24	-0.21	-0.05	-0.03	18	33%	-0.06	7	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.17	0.02	0.02	10	86%	0.17	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler III	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	16	55%	0.12	2	-0.07	10	60%	-0.02
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04
Quinten Post	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.00	6	77%	0.08	4	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Moses Moody	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	9	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Kuminga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.01	11	43%	-0.03	3	-0.05	8	62%	-0.01
Gui Santos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.17,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.14	-0.04	0.02	21	43%	-0.02	7	-0.19	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	3.4	29.5	15.7	28.1	3.5	40.5	150.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +24.8%

DEN +1.4%

DEN +24.4%

GSW -2.5%

DEN +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.7	14.0	14.4	108.6	101.9	113.1
season	14.0	14.4		118.4	113.6
opponent	14.4	14.6		110.4	114.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.4	10.4	16.5	16.2	13.7
GSW	13.4	15.9	13.5	13.1	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	91	90	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.07	20	-11	31	13.3	15.9	-2.59	13.7	16.2	-2.54
Peyton Watson	81	78	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.10	14	-5	19	13.4	14.6	-1.16	13.6	15.3	-1.68
Aaron Gordon	83	83	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	-4	17	13.3	15.0	-1.61	13.6	15.6	-1.97
Russell Westbrook	94	92	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	4	1	13.6	14.3	-0.66	14.0	14.1	-0.09
Vlatko Cancar	51	50	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.17	3	6	-3	14.1	13.3	0.80	13.8	14.2	-0.37
Spencer Jones	40	39	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.17	3	6	-3	12.4	14.5	-2.08	16.3	12.6	3.74
Zeke Nnaji	22	20	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	13	-17	15.0	13.3	1.61	15.6	13.6	1.97
Hunter Tyson	42	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	12	-15	14.8	12.9	1.91	13.0	14.7	-1.65
Jalen Pickett	21	20	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.12	-6	15	-21	15.7	13.2	2.48	15.1	13.7	1.35

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Kuminga	56	57	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.28	6	-15	21	14.1	13.9	0.29	14.9	12.2	2.72
Quinten Post	22	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.11	-9	0	-9	14.2	14.0	0.28	10.2	14.6	-4.37
Gary Payton II	55	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-8	7	13.7	14.4	-0.65	14.3	13.0	1.32
Buddy Hield	45	47	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.22	0	-9	9	13.2	14.7	-1.52	13.2	14.1	-0.89
Gui Santos	32	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-5	1	14.3	13.9	0.44	13.2	13.9	-0.70
Draymond Green	72	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-4	-1	14.1	13.8	0.34	13.7	13.6	0.06
Kevon Looney	30	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-5	1	13.7	14.1	-0.44	14.1	13.5	0.58
Moses Moody	54	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	3	-15	15.4	12.5	2.86	13.4	14.0	-0.57
Stephen Curry	79	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	-2	-5	13.5	15.8	-2.32	13.5	14.3	-0.78
Jimmy Butler III	70	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	0	-9	14.1	13.9	0.19	14.0	13.0	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.31,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.26,0.22,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 101, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.2%
ATL 98, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.23,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.24,0.19,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
SAS 105, LAL 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.2,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.03,0.01,0	94.0%